Very little has gone according to plan for the Philadelphia 76ers this season, and it gets no easier with a visit to the Miami Heat tonight.
Though it’s too early to press the panic button, Philadelphia has dug a concerning 2-10 hole, and my 76ers vs Heat predictions point to more struggles here, especially with Joel Embiid listed as doubtful.
Read on for my NBA picks as these Eastern Conference rivals square off in this November 18 showdown.
76ers vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Heat -4.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Both teams have to be concerned as they look at the standings. With the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics leaving the rest of the East behind, and other teams emerging in the top six, will things come together for the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers this year?
Once again, we won’t really be able to gauge where they stand from tonight’s battle. Philadelphia arrives without Tyrese Maxey, and the latest reports suggest Joel Embiid may also miss out due to an illness.
That spells big trouble for a Philadelphia team that’s 1-5 on the road this season and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests overall.
While the visitors have the rest advantage, Miami has the edge in shotmaking and, with Jimmy Butler potentially returning from an ankle injury tonight, I’m comfortable laying the points with the hosts.
The 3-point margin could be the deciding factor. The Heat shot 44% from 3-point range against the Indiana Pacers last night and rank third in the league in 3-point percentage (39%), while the 76ers have the second-worst mark at 32%.
It’s not as if Philadelphia has just had some bad bounces in tight games, either — the visitors’ last five losses have all come by a margin of at least eight points. They shot just 40% from the field overall against the Orlando Magic on Friday, and I haven’t seen enough from Paul George to suggest he can carry the offense in heavy minutes.
Instead, this feels like a chance to bank on Miami’s superior depth, and I’m leaning on Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro to power the hosts back towards .500 here
76ers vs Heat same-game parlay
Heat -4.5
Bam Adebayo Over 0.5 threes
Kyle Lowry Over 2.5 assists
The Heat will take all the spacing they can get — and that includes Adebayo spotting up from beyond the arc. Adebayo has been more willing to let fly from deep, and he’s gone 5-for-8 on 3-pointers across his last three games.
He’s always been a capable jump shooter and I’m wagering that we’ll see more experimentation with his range, with at least one dropping in. Butler’s return would help, given the crowd he typically draws in the paint and the kick-out opportunities to shooters.
Kyle Lowry and Caleb Martin were on the Heat last season and they’ve been thrown into starting roles for the depleted 76ers when both are better suited for the second unit. Still, that means more opportunities on the NBA player props market.
I’m taking this adjusted 2.5 line for Lowry's assists. He’s had three or more dimes in six of his last seven games and Philadelphia is so dependent on the veteran’s steady playmaking without Maxey. Even if Lowry’s minutes are shortened for this back-to-back outing, this is an Over he can hit.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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76ers vs Heat odds
76ers vs Heat live odds
76ers vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Philadelphia +3 (-110) | Miami -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +125 | Miami -150
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 (-110) | Under 219.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
76ers vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia enters as a 4.5-point underdog, and that line could climb if Butler is available for Miami.
- Three of the Heat’s last five losses have come by three points or fewer.
- Though the 76ers have won the past three matchups between these teams, the Heat are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
- Miami has hit the Over in three straight games and five of six.
76ers vs Heat trend
The Heat have cashed in the 1H moneyline in 26 of their past 41 games. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Heat.
How to watch 76ers vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Monday, 11-18-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FanDuel Sports Network - Sun, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
76ers vs Heat latest injuries
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