If the Milwaukee Bucks find a way to spring an upset tonight, then a Game 7 between them and the Indiana Pacers would set a presumed NBA record as the 12th meeting between the two this season.
My Bucks vs. Pacers predictions focus on the familiarity between these teams, which will play a key role in Game 6. Our free NBA picks for this May 2 matchup center around a solid 48-minute effort from Indiana.
Bucks vs Pacers predictions
My best bet
Pacers first half/full-time double result (-125 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Damian Lillard’s apparent intent to try to play tonight has moved this line. It had spent all of Thursday favoring the Indiana Pacers by 8.5, and Lillard’s reported efforts dropped it as low as -5 before settling at -6. Let’s take two notes from that move.
First of all, Giannis Antetokounmpo is still genuinely doubtful to play. If there were a chance he could return from a calf injury, that spread would have fallen to within a bucket. He is worth more to the spread than even Lillard.
Secondly, it may be an overreaction, though that overreaction is hard to quantify without knowing how well Lillard is moving on a tender Achilles. Setting aside the foolishness of trying to play through an Achilles worry — and as basketball fans, let’s all hope the Milwaukee Bucks do not come to regret this — the chance of Lillard playing in Game 6 was already included in the spread.
Indiana was a 5.5-point road favorite on Tuesday. Typical adjusting for the change in venue would have jumped that spread to at least -10 with the Pacers at home. While the Bucks did win Game 5 in a blowout, that should not have influenced the line by two points.
Milwaukee was so desperate to shut down Indiana’s offense it effectively changed dominant hands at halftime a la Rocky Balboa in his second title bout with Apollo Creed. That kind of trick works only once and the Pacers offense should be expected to find its usual gear tonight.
If Lillard’s possible return was already baked into the spread by a touch — enough of a touch that this drop to -6 is too aggressive — why not just take that? Because the last moments of desperation tonight could create a backdoor cover from the Bucks.
The Pacers have led at halftime in each of their three wins, so taking a double result on Indiana tonight provides similarly mispriced value.
Bucks vs Pacers same-game parlay (SGP)
Pacers first half/full-time double result
T.J. McConnell Over 3.5 assists
Myles Turner Over 2.5 made threes
As Jon Metler points out, T.J. McConnell’s stat line was robbed on Tuesday by teammates missing shots. He logged only three assists despite handing out seven potential assists. Role players tend to shoot better at home, so they should reward T.J. McConnell more tonight.
Myles Turner is much more than a role player, but his shooting suffered similarly. He has gone 4 of 13 (30.8%) from deep in Indiana’s two road losses in this series but 14 of 25 (56%) in the three wins. If trusting the Pacers to lead at the end of both halves tonight, then it should be assumed Turner plays a part in that.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bucks vs Pacers odds
Bucks vs Pacers live odds
Get the latest Bucks vs Pacers NBA playoff odds for Game 6.
Bucks vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +7.5 (-105) | Indiana -7.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +260 | Indiana -350
- Over/Under: Over 215.5 (-110) | Under 215.5 (-110)
Bucks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread had favored Indiana by 8.5 points since Wednesday morning, aside from a brief dip that evening. As soon as the reports of Lillard’s, and to a lesser extent Antetokounmpo’s, attempt to play became public, this line plummeted to -5, bouncing back to -6 within five minutes.
- This total opened early on Wednesday at 215.5 and fell to 214.5 on Wednesday night, only to plummet to 212.5 in Thursday’s earliest hours. It rebounded to 215 before the Lillard news, at which point it spiked to 217 and held there.
- Simply as a note of how different postseason basketball is compared to regular season basketball, the five matchups between these two from November to January averaged pregame totals of 255. The six playoff games have averaged 221.1.
Bucks vs Pacers trend
Before this series, Milwaukee was 8-12 against the spread on the road under Doc Rivers. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pacers.
Bucks vs Pacers game info
| Location: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-2-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Bucks vs Pacers latest injuries
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