Just as the New York Knicks were starting to look like they had a real shot to make a push for a top seed in the East, Julius Randle dislocated his shoulder and could be out for an extended period of time.
Luckily for Tom Thibodeau’s squad, they’re hitting the road to take on the Charlotte Hornets in their first game without Randle.
While losing a two-time All-Star is a tough pill to swallow, even with him out, the NBA odds have New York as 8-point road favorites. With OG Anunoby’s recent play, the Knicks should be able to stay afloat by leaning on the defensive-minded wing.
Find out where my best bets lie in our free NBA picks for Knicks vs. Hornets on Monday, January 29.
Knicks vs Hornets odds
Knicks vs Hornets predictions
The New York Knicks have been on a tear since the start of January, going 12-2 in 14 games during the month. Thibodeau had them looking like real contenders and Randle had been playing some of the most efficient basketball of his career.
With the way Thibodeau plays his star’s major minutes, taking a player like Randle out of the lineup for multiple weeks could zap the Knicks' momentum. The former Kentucky star has the highest usage rate on the team and his 28.7% usage rate is the 20th-most in the league among players who've played at least 30 games.
Thibodeau knows that even with his best player out, he has the talent on this Knicks roster to fill in for the time being.
“I also feel that if (Randle is) out, the next guy gets in there and gets it done," Thibodeau said.
Taking him out of the lineup is going to lead to not only Jalen Brunson having to carry more of the load on offense — he leads the team in points per game with 26.6 — but OG Anunoby is in position to expand his scoring impact.
Heading to Charlotte, Anunoby’s line is set at 19.5 points and it’s a perfect opportunity for him to show just how effective he can be on offense. The Charlotte Hornets are giving up the sixth-most points per game in the NBA and have the worst defensive rating in the league.
Steve Clifford’s team has really struggled to stop both small forwards and power forwards this season, the two spots Anunoby is expected to be deployed at with Randle out. It sounds like the former Hoosier will be playing his regular spot at small forward, but could moonlight at power forward in small-ball lineups.
Charlotte is a great team to let Anunoby loose at both positions. The Hornets are giving up the second-most points per game in the NBA to small forwards and the sixth-most to power forwards.
This season, Anunoby is averaging 15.3 points per game, but has been playing better basketball since arriving in the Big Apple. In 27 games with the Raptors, he was scoring 15.1 points per game, shooting 48.9% from the field, hitting 37.4% of his threes, and 71.7% of his free throws.
In 14 games with the Knicks, all those numbers have seen an uptick with 15.6 points per game while shooting 51.6% from the field, 39.1% from three, and 84.2% from the free throw line.
Anunoby’s arrival has coincided with New York’s dominance in January and with a bigger role while Randle is out, he can really show what he’s got on offense.
This season, he’s scored at least 20 points 10 times in 41 games (24.4%) and has done it twice in his last 10 games with the Knicks. Over his last two games with New York, he’s averaging 22.5 points per game.
My best bet: OG Anunoby Over 19.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)
Knicks vs Hornets same-game parlay
OG Anunoby Over 18.5 points
OG Anunoby Over 1.5 steals
Jalen Brunson Over 43.5 points + assists + rebounds
30% boost available
While the addition of Anunoby is going to help New York’s offense with Randle out, it’s his defense that brought him to the Knicks. Last year’s steals leader has seen a rise in that category this season since joining Thibodeau’s team.
He was averaging one steal per game with the Raptors this season and that number has jumped up to 1.8 with the Knicks. In 14 games with the Knicks, he’s had at least two steals six times but has topped 1.5 steals in four of his last six. Over that six-game stretch, he’s averaging 2.8 per game.
Beyond Anunoby, the Knicks will need Brunson to bring his best without Randle, and with LaMelo Ball potentially not playing against New York after missing Charlotte's last game, Thibodeau’s lead guard is in a great position to pop.
He’s averaging 37 points + assists + rebounds this season and Charlotte is allowing opposing point guards to average 39.1 this season. Without Randle, Brunson and his 28.1% usage rate should see even more action.
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Knicks vs Hornets spread and Over/Under analysis
Even with Randle not playing for New York, most books opened with the Knickerbockers as 6.5-point favorites. With the news that Ball is a game-time decision, the line continues to shift in the Knicks' favor. Most now have New York between -8 and -8.5.
The Knicks have been one of the best teams in the NBA against the spread this season at 26-18-2. During Thibodeau’s team’s dominant stretch of January, New York has gone 11-3 ATS. Charlotte, on the other hand, is among the worst at just 16-28 ATS, including 3-11 ATS in January.
The game total opened at 224.5 and has only shifted about a point or two with Ball’s status up in the air. Most books have it between 222.5 and 223.5.
The Knicks haven’t been a great Over bet this season going 20-26, and since Anunoby took the court for them at the beginning of January, New York is 2-12 O/U. With its poor defense, Charlotte has been solid betting the Over at 23-21, including 5-2 O/U in its last seven.
Knicks vs Hornets betting trend to know
The Hornets have stayed Under their team total in 27 of their last 39 games at home (+13.30 units / 30% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Hornets.
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Knicks vs Hornets game info
Location: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
Date: | Monday, January 29, 2024 |
Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | Bally Sports SE-CHA, MSG |
Knicks vs Hornets latest injuries
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