It seems like a lifetime ago that the Los Angeles Lakers upset the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round of the playoffs, but in truth, it was just one year ago. Now the Grizzlies are playing out the string while the Lakers seek to increase their NBA odds of hosting their play-in game with a win on Friday.
My NBA picks and Lakers vs. Grizzlies predictions believe Rui Hachimura is well-positioned to feast on this injury-riddled Memphis team.
Lakers vs Grizzlies predictions
My best bet
Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 points (-125 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
While it took a while for Rui Hachimura to earn Darvin Ham’s trust this season, he’s more than delivered on his end of the bargain. He’s been a starter for 37 games now, and not coincidentally, the Lakers' offense has gone from hovering around the Bottom 5 to borderline elite.
Hachimura is shooting 42.2% on threes and nearly 60% on twos, acting as a hyper-efficient finisher alongside a team with numerous on-ball playmakers including LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and D’Angelo Russell. As he’s allowed to focus on pressing the advantages that others create for him, he almost never turns the ball over.
Rui is a 6-foot-8 scoring wing, easily the most desired player archetype in the NBA precisely because so few teams have a good defensive matchup for him. He had a 68.7% true shooting percentage in their first-round series last year. The only reason he scored just 14.5 points per game is because he played limited minutes.
Now that Rui has fought his way into being a featured part of Ham’s rotation, he’s averaging over 31 minutes per game since March. With that increased opportunity, he’s now up to 18.1 points over his last 10 games.
Even at their best, the Memphis Grizzlies don’t have an ideal matchup for Rui. The version of this team that they’ll trot out on Friday, which excludes their 13 (!) top players, certainly does not.
Their best remaining defenders will be primarily concerned with doubling Anthony Davis if he catches the ball in the post, or corralling LeBron any time he has a live dribble. Rui will have every opportunity to attack a defense so bent it's warped beyond all recognition.
These Rui Hachimura odds would be favorable even if the Memphis Grizzlies were close to full strength, but I love them against this skeleton crew of a team.
Lakers vs Grizzlies same-game parlay (SGP)
Rui Hachimura Over 13.5 points
LeBron James Over 7.5 assists
Lakers -15.5
A game like this is ultimately all about motivation for L.A. The Lakers still have something to play for and they are coming off two discouraging losses. Los Angeles is 20-14 against the spread following a loss this season, and beat a much healthier Grizzlies team by 12 two weeks ago without AD.
LeBron, for his part, is averaging 9.1 assists over his last 10 games and has only had fewer than eight twice in that span. With the Grizzlies missing their entire starting frontcourt, James should be able to control the game and rack up assists largely unbothered by serious on-ball pressure.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lakers vs Grizzlies odds
Lakers vs Grizzlies live odds
Lakers vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles -14 (-110) | Memphis +14 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -1,100 | Memphis +700
- Over/Under: Over 226 (-110) | Under 226 (-110)
Lakers vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Los Angeles opened as 12.5-point favorites over Memphis, but that’s grown to as much as -15.5 as of late Friday morning.
- Grizzlies are 15-24 ATS at home.
- The total for Friday’s tilt opened at 228.5 but has dropped to as low as 225.5 at some sportsbooks.
- The Under is 26-12-1 in Grizzlies home games.
Lakers vs Grizzlies trend
The Grizzlies are 15-24 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Grizzlies.
Lakers vs Grizzlies game info
| Location: | FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Friday, 4-12-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports SE-MEM, Spectrum SportsNet |
Lakers vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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