Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic hit the road to take on Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday as we analyze the NBA odds to determine the best bet for this matchup.
Don't worry; this article isn't another Under bet on Franz Wagner's assists prop. I haven't hit the button on that market, well, not yet, at least.
The Magic have several key players on the injury report for Thursday and are playing on the back end of a back-to-back, which is making it difficult to assign prices to several of these props.
The Bucks, on the other hand, are well-rested and will have their full roster, as Giannis was upgraded to probable from questionable. With Antetokounmpo in and the Magic facing a cluster of injuries in their backcourt, find out where I'm leaning with my free NBA picks for the Magic vs. Bucks on December 21.
Magic vs Bucks odds
Magic vs Bucks predictions
The Orlando Magic are on the back end of a back-to-back as they will travel to Fiserv Forum to take on the Milwaukee Bucks. The Magic are on a three-game skid and have had a hard time scoring of late, and things won't get any easier on Thursday.
Markelle Fultz has already been ruled out for the Magic, and Joe Ingles and Jalen Suggs have both popped up on the injury report and are questionable to play. This leaves the Magic backcourt in a tough spot, as they could potentially be without three players who handle the ball and create offense.
The two best offensive weapons on the Magic are their forwards Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, but finishing at the rim will be more challenging against this Bucks frontcourt. The Magic are also struggling from beyond the arc right now, so it's not like Wagner and Banchero will be kicking it out to dead-eye shooters once they're in the lane, which the Bucks should be able to clog as a result.
The Magic might have a more difficult time scoring, but that won't stop them from bringing their best effort on the defensive side of the ball. The Magic rank fourth in the NBA in team defensive rating and have multiple bigs who can be disruptive and meet Giannis Antetokounmpo at the rim.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if we see Jonathan Isaac receive more minutes on Thursday and match up on Giannis as his primary defender. The Magic even showed a little zone defense against Antetokounmpo the last time they played.
I don't see this as a high-scoring game, but this Under play is more of a lean than a bet at the moment. It's hard to fully commit to a bet here without knowing who will be playing for the Magic on the second night of a back-to-back.
My best bet: Under 238.5 (-110 at bet365)
Magic vs Bucks same-game parlay
Under 238.5 points
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 31.5 points
Franz Wagner Over 1.5 threes made
If Suggs is out of the lineup, the Bucks will have more of an offensive advantage on the perimeter than they typically would when facing the Magic, as Damian Lillard will be matching up against Gary Harris and Cole Anthony. I'd expect the Bucks to attack these mismatches with Lillard and not force the ball to Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo will still get his points, but I think this is more of a Lillard game than an Antetokounmpo game, which is why I like the Under on Antetokounmpo's points.
The Over 1.5 threes made for Wagner is an interesting choice when playing the game total Under, but both can be true, and the SGP algorithm takes into account the lack of correlation between these bets.
I think Banchero will have a hard time getting to the rim on Thursday, which will lead to him kicking it out to Wagner for threes. I also think the lane will be so clogged for Wagner that he will call his own number as well from deep. Both of these are a problem overall for the Magic, and why I like the Under 238.5 points, but I do think we will see Wagner take an above-average number of attempts from deep.
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Magic vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
The Bucks opened as a 7.5-point favorite over the Magic at Caesars, and we've seen that line move to Bucks -8.5. This line has been bouncing around all day, as it isn't clear who will be playing for the Magic, so make sure to shop around — there are some Bucks -9 out there as well.
DraftKings opened the total at 239 and has been moved down to 238. The 238 at DK is not a consensus number by any means in the market, as you can find anywhere from 237.5 to 238.5.
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Magic vs Bucks betting trend to know
The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 15 games at home (+12.00 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Bucks.
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Magic vs Bucks game info
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Thursday, December 21, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
Magic vs Bucks latest injuries
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