Dereck Lively II is having a solid postseason debut for the Dallas Mavericks as they prepare to face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round tonight.
My Mavericks vs. Thunder predictions for Game 1 focus on Lively taking on a bigger role in Game 1, as the "rest vs. rust" debates should ramp up vs. a Thunder team taking the court for the first time since April 29.
My NBA picks look at how Dallas, fresh off the competitive fires of the first round, could catch a well-rested OKC (a 3.5-point home favorite) on its heels tonight.
Mavericks vs Thunder predictions
My best bet
Dereck Lively II Over 6.5 rebounds (+110 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Mav rookie Dereck Lively II averaged 8.8 points and 6.2 rebounds over 20.3 minutes in the opening round and now the 7-footer takes on a bigger role for the Mavs in the conference semifinals. Not only are the Dallas Mavericks down a big body with the loss of Maxi Kleber, but Lively is an adequate foil to fellow rookie, OKC 7-foot center Chet Holmgren.
The lengthy Lively also serves the Mavericks’ strategy against the Oklahoma City Thunder, which sees them park a center in the middle of the paint to plug up cutting lanes. Dallas has assigned centers to OKC guard Josh Giddey, exploiting his poor perimeter shooting and dropping the center into help coverage without the threat of Giddey making open looks from long range.
Game 1 player projections for Lively call for between 22 and 23 minutes of floor time in which he’s forecasted for a similar output as the first round, but with that defensive importance and the lack of depth at center, Lively could log between 25-30 minutes.
Given the current models, Lively is projected to haul in 7.1 rebounds over 23 minutes of play tonight — which already sits above his rebounding total of 6.5 Over/Under — but even a slight uptick in minutes sees that output around eight boards.
Lively topped 6.5 rebounds three times in the six games against the Clippers, including nine boards over 24 minutes in Game 6 when Kleber injured his shoulder after just five minutes of floor time.
As mentioned, Lively’s rebounding total for Game 1 sits at 6.5 O/U as of Tuesday morning and opened as low as 5.5 with the Over juiced to -135 at some sharper books earlier this week. Even after that adjustment, I’ll jump on the Over 6.5 with some spots dealing it as long as +110.
Mavericks vs Thunder same-game parlay (SGP)
Dereck Lively II Over 6.5 rebounds
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 threes
Mavericks first-half +2
Lively gets extra run, and the Mavs defensive strategy leaves him in prime rebound range, with my number closer to eight boards tonight.
Washington won’t be attacking the rim with Holmgren protecting the paint. He’ll settle for perimeter looks and knock down at least two triples with OKC focusing defense on Doncic.
The Thunder run the risk of being a little flat out of the gate, given their extended break between series. Dallas still has playoff pressure coursing through its veins and will give OKC a run in the opening 24 minutes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Thunder odds
Mavericks vs Thunder live odds
Get the latest Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA playoff odds for Game 1.
Mavericks vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +2.5 | Oklahoma City -2.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +120 | Oklahoma City -140
- Over/Under: Over 214 | Under 214
Mavericks vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The series odds have Oklahoma City as a -120 favorite to win the series, holding home court as the No. 1 seed in the West. Dallas comes back as a +100 underdog to advance. The Thunder won three of the four meetings between these teams in the regular season.
- The Game 1 spread opened with the Thunder as short as 2.5-point home chalk and that quickly jumped to -3.5 with early action on OKC. As of Tuesday morning, the host side is up as high as -4.
- The total for the series opener hit the board at 214 and that number ticked up over the past few days, climbing to as high as 218.5 O/U. Three of their four matchups in the regular season played Over the total.
- According to Covers Consensus data, 61% of picks are laying the short spread with the favorite while 71% of picks on the total are taking the Over.
Mavericks vs Thunder trend
The Mavericks have covered the spread in 28 of their last 39 games (+15.90 units). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Thunder.
Mavericks vs Thunder game info
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date: | Tuesday, 5-7-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, truTV |
Mavericks vs Thunder latest injuries
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