The Minnesota Timberwolves have looked like the Timberwolves of lore for the last three games — discombobulated, immature and easily dismayed. The Denver Nuggets deserve a pile of credit for forcing that issue and retaking complete control of this series with three straight wins.
But with Minnesota back home for a do-or-die Game 6, its best path forward tonight will be the most reliable and mature players on the roster. Anthony Edwards may get Denver’s defensive attention and most of the headlines, but he won't be the key to the Timberwolves’ offense regaining their groove.
That key will actually be Minnesota’s best defender, so let’s back Rudy Gobert’s offense in our NBA picks as we dig into Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions for Thursday, May 16.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Rudy Gobert has cleared this scoring prop just once in this series, scoring 18 points on 7-for-7 shooting in Game 5, but that was also only the second time in four games he's attempted more than five shots.
For as much undeserved grief as Gobert took for Nikola Jokic’s awe-inspiring third quarter — there isn’t any defender in the NBA that could have slowed that platonic form of Jokic, there isn’t one — he finished the game with a plus/minus of -2 when Minnesota lost by 15. Gobert played very well in that game, as anyone who genuinely watched it could tell.
And he did that without Mike Conley in the lineup. Conley usually keys Gobert’s offense more than anyone else in the Minnesota Timberwolves rotation. Their pick-and-rolls flow more calmly than any other combination tends to.
Even more notable, the worry of Conley missing the game developed relatively late. He showed up on the injury report the morning of the game. Presumably, Minnesota knew before then that he might not play, but the game plan was not thoroughly considered without Conley’s impact.
Conley is listed as questionable for tonight. Optimistically, he went through shootaround Thursday morning. Pessimistically, he's battling the same troubled piece of calf muscle that cost Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kristaps Porzingis weeks of the postseason.
If Conley plays, he should elevate Gobert’s offense. If Conley doesn’t play, the Timberwolves game plan should still already be better designed for his absence.
Emphasizing Gobert’s offense tonight can serve a few defensive roles for Minnesota. First of all, Jokic has yet to be in foul trouble in this series. One way to slow down the three-time MVP would be to get him off the court.
Secondly, even if Gobert misses at the rim, the Timberwolves' transition defense will be better suited than when any other player misses at the rim.
The Denver Nuggets crushed Minnesota in transition on Tuesday, scoring 16 points with most of them coming on not true fast breaks. The Timberwolves have to get back on defense if they're going to continue this series, and one way to help that cause is to run more offense through their best defender.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Rudy Gobert Over 11.5 points
Nikola Jokic Under 29.5 points
Timberwolves moneyline
Basing any part of a game plan around getting an opposing player into foul trouble is a risky approach to a game, even if it's only a side effect of the actual intention of getting Gobert going and slowing Denver’s transition offense.
If Jokic does not get into foul trouble, Minnesota is likely to send extra defenders at him after his evisceration in Game 5, and everyone who's ever watched him knows Jokic is more than happy to make the smart pass.
However, those passes are only worthwhile if Denver's role players continue to shoot lights out. At some point, they should slow, and if that is tonight, then the Timberwolves should keep this series alive.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves odds
Nuggets vs Timberwolves live odds
Get the latest Nuggets vs Timberwolves NBA playoff odds for Game 6.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Denver +2.5 | Minnesota -2.5
- Moneyline: Denver +115 | Minnesota -135
- Over/Under: Over 205 | Under 205
Nuggets vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 2.5-point favorite after its Game 5 defeat, a number that ticked down to -2 as the calendar flipped to Thursday but then toggled between -2 and -2.5 for much of the morning.
- The total opened at 205 and fell as low as 202.5 late on Wednesday before rallying on Thursday morning, finding a home at 204.5 or 205, depending on your sportsbook.
- Both the spread and the total have lopsided bet percentages at BetMGM, as of Thursday morning. The Nuggets have received more than 75% of both the betting handle and the number of tickets on the spread, while 80% of the handle has come in on the Over with 91% of betting tickets backing it.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves trend
These two have met nine times this season. In all four Timberwolves’ outright wins, the Under cashed, while in all five Nuggets’ outright wins, the Over cashed. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves game info
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, 5-16-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Nuggets vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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