The return of NBA Cup group play features a rematch of arguably the hottest rivalry from last year's tournament, as the Indiana Pacers face off against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Although Indiana got the best of the Bucks last year, my Pacers vs. Bucks predictions expect Milwaukee to get revenge tonight.
Find out more in my free NBA picks for Friday, November 22.
Pacers vs Bucks prediction
My best bet
Bucks -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Last year saw the budding of a new NBA rivalry between the Indiana Pacers and the Milwaukee Bucks that coincidentally began during the semifinals of the in-season tournament.
🗣"Y'all know what time it is."
— ESPN (@espn) December 8, 2023
Tyrese Haliburton called 'Dame Time' on the Bucks 😳 pic.twitter.com/pdAUDHVsxt
There was also heated exchange just a week later after the Pacers took Giannis Antetokounmpo's game ball after a 64-point performance. Things cooled off until they met again in April when Bobby Portis and Andrew Nembhard got tangled up and were involved in an intense shoving match.
While things could get chippy again on Friday night, the Pacers may want to focus on their play more. They have now dropped four of their last five and their defense has been horrendous, giving up 124+ points twice during that span.
While the Bucks have not been the most potent offense (18th in offensive rating), they have turned things around since the start of the NBA Cup. They have won four of their last five, largely demonstrating an ability to play cohesively on defense (seventh in defensive rating during that span, 22nd prior to that) and close games out in the second half — something they've regularly failed to do under Doc Rivers.
The Pacers will still be without Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard who have been out since November 1st and 6th, respectively. Their absence has been felt especially on defense, and that will undoubtedly be the case against the surging Bucks.
Pacers vs Bucks same-game parlay
Bucks -5.5
Myles Turner Under 15.5 points
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points
One additional area where the Bucks should have an edge is at center, where they allow a league-low 18.7 points per game.
That could mean a long night for Myles Turner. Turner gashed the Bucks earlier in the season for 22 and 26 points, but adjustments were made in the last two matchups and he was held to 15 or less in both.
Milwaukee struggles quite a bit against point guards, as they allow 26.7 points to the position per game — the fourth-highest mark. That may mean another productive showing for Tyrese Haliburton against the Bucks, who had his way with them this time of year last year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pacers vs Bucks odds
Pacers vs Bucks live odds
Pacers vs Bucks opening odds
- Spread: Indiana +5 | Milwaukee -5
- Moneyline: Indiana +170 | Milwaukee -205
- Over/Under: Over 236 | Under 236
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pacers vs Bucks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Despite their recent stretch of winning, the Bucks are still 5-9-1 against the spread, good for the sixth-worst cover rate in the league.
- Indiana has gone a near even 7-8 ATS, but it has gone just 3-6 ATS on the road.
- Milwaukee has gone 10-5 to the Under this season, including 6-2 to the Under as home favorites.
Pacers vs Bucks trend
The Pacers are 11-4 to the Over this year, making them the most Over-friendly team on the year. Find more NBA betting trends for Pacers vs. Bucks.
How to watch Pacers vs Bucks
| Location: | Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Friday, 11-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FSDN Indiana, FDSN Wisconsin |
Pacers vs Bucks latest injuries
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