We’ve got a jam-packed night of NBA action with nine games on the odds board, which means there is plenty of value to be found in the NBA player prop market.
My favorites include a not-so-revenge game for Julius Randle as he and the Timberwolves travel to Madison Square Garden to take on the Knicks, and while the Pelicans are struggling don’t blame Dejounte Murray who will make sweet music against the Jazz.
Here are my NBA picks for Friday, January 17.
Best NBA player props today
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Randle Under 20.5 points (-115 at bet365) -
Murray 3+ threes (+200 at bet365) -
Gafford Over 8.5 rebounds (+100 at bet365)
Picks made on 1-17 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
NBA player props for January 17
Prop bet #1: Julius Randle Under 20.5 Points
When the New York Knicks visited the Minnesota Timberwolves back in December, Karl-Anthony Towns was given a heroes welcome and then proceeded to cook his former team for 32 points in a 133-107 beatdown.
Now, the roles are reversed and it is Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo returning to Madison Square Garden on Friday night, and I’m not sure the Randle aura will match KAT’s return to Minny.
For starters, most are calling the offseason trade a bust for the T-wolves. One season after winning 56 games Minnesota traded away one of its most beloved players for Randle and DiVincenzo. But it hasn’t worked out.
Randle is scuffling and the T-wolves enter this matchup 21-19 and in eighth place in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, KAT is thriving with the Knicks who look like a legitimate contender in the East.
Then there is Randle’s performance on the court. He just hasn’t seemed to gel with his new team and is in the midst of a shooting slump. Randle is averaging 17 points while shooting 23.8% from 3-point range over his last 10 games.
While the Knicks have slipped a little bit on defense lately, they have been better at home and allow the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing power forwards this season.
Randle’s points prop is sitting at 20.5 for this matchup. He’s played below that number eight times in the last 10 games and with this feeling like the antithesis of a revenge game, give me the Under on Randle’s point total tonight.
Prop bet #2: Dejounte Murray 3+ Threes
It’s looking like a lost season for the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pels are dead last in the Western Conference at 10-32, which wasn’t what they envisioned when they brought in Dejounte Murray in the offseason.
Injuries have played a big part in this disastrous start, for Murray included. But after missing the first 18 games of the season it looks like Murray is getting comfortable with his new team and doing all he can to get New Orleans out of this funk.
The Pelicans guard looks like the best version of himself, averaging 22.8 points, 6.5 assists, and 6.3 rebounds over his last six games while shooting a ridiculous 41.7% from 3-point range on 8.0 attempts per contest, and I like him to keep up the hot shooting when he and the Pels host the Utah Jazz on Friday night.
While things have not gone as planned for the Pelicans this season, the fact that they are 11-point favorites in this matchup should tell you all you need to know about what’s going on in Utah.
The Jazz also have just 10 wins on the season, and their biggest issues are on the defensive end of the floor. Utah ranks next-to-last in the NBA when it comes to defensive rating this season and is putting up very little resistance on the perimeter.
The Jazz surrender the second-most 3-point attempts per game (40.0) while giving up the fifth-most makes (14.2), so cooling Murray off will be a problem.
Murray’s made-threes prop is sitting at just 1.5 and obviously juiced to the Over. But this guy has hit 14 threes over his last three games and at least four in each of those games. So instead let's take his alt line of 3+ which is priced at a much more tantalizing +200.
Prop bet #3: Daniel Gafford Over 8.5 Rebounds
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a huge 134-114 win over the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers last night.
But coming off a big win, and immediately hopping on a plane to take on a Dallas Mavericks team without Luka Doncic the very next night could mean the Thunder are in for a bit of a letdown.
And by letdown, I don’t necessarily mean OKC will lose, but that could come in the form of less energy on the glass. Which is an area this team already struggles with.
For all the things the Thunder do well, rebounding isn’t one of them. Now, some of that has to do with injuries, but that doesn’t change the fact that Oklahoma City ranks 27th in rebounding rate and 28th in opponent rebounds per game.
Now, the Mavs two best rebounders, Doncic and Dereck Lively II, are out for this matchup. That should mean added opportunities for center Daniel Gafford.
Gafford began the season as Dallas’ starting center, but Lively surpassed him on the depth chart and saw his minutes dip. But the Mavs still have confidence in him when Lively misses time.
Lively has sat out five games since the start of December. Gafford has played nearly 30 minutes per game hauling down 7.2 rebounds per contest in those instances and is coming off arguably the best game of his season last time out going for 27 points on 12-of-13 shooting and grabbing 12 boards.
Give me Over 8.5 rebounds for Gafford against a Thunder team with heavy legs and already isn’t a great team at cleaning the glass.
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NBA odds today
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