Best NBA Player Props Today: Inflation Leads Us To Fade the Dimes

Prop bet #1: Lo' assists total

Despite losing their last two games in a row, the Orlando Magic’s breakout is legit. The Magic currently sit in fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a 37-28 record, thanks to a defense that is one of the best in the NBA and of course the development of young talent. Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, and probably most importantly of all, Paolo Banchero. 

The reigning Rookie of the Year has basically upped his production across the board. He’s averaging 22.8 points, 6.8 rebounds 5.2 assists per game this season while his effective field goal percentage has gone way up.

All that to say, I think the assist market for Paulo Banchero's odds for tonight’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets is too high.

As noted, Banchero is dishing out 5.2 assists per game this season and that has actually dropped to 4.8 per game over his last nine contests. So, I believe we are getting this number in part because things have been going so poorly for the Nets recently.

However, Brooklyn should come into this one confident following an upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers and mostly healthy for this matchup. While the Nets aren’t the greatest defensive team in the Association, they do an excellent job at limiting assists. Brooklyn ranks seventh in the NBA when it comes to opponent assists per possession.

Banchero has played below this number in seven of his last nine games overall, and the even money is the icing on the cake here. 

Paolo Banchero prop: Under 5.5 assists (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: No dimes for Zion

The New Orleans Pelicans are starting to get a lot of hype around the Covers office as a long shot to target to win the Western Conference. 

Quietly, the Pels have gone 13-4 straight up in their last 17 games overall to climb into fifth spot in the West standings. The only teams that rank higher than New Orleans when it comes to net rating are the Boston Celtics, the Oklahoma City Thunder, and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

They are balanced at both ends of the floor, they have depth and they are healthy. That includes Zion Williamson. Hard to believe right? Williamson is healthy and has been effective averaging 22.1 points with 5.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists this season.

However, Williamson and Co. get a tough matchup with another up-and-coming contender, the Cleveland Cavaliers, who could be getting a big boost tonight with the potential return of Donovan Mitchell.

While the Cavs could use Mithcell’s offensive punch, their effort on defense remains the same. Cleveland is one of the best teams in the NBA at that end of the floor, ranking third in defensive rating and opponent-effective field goal percentage. They also do an excellent job of disrupting passing lanes.

So, with hands in your face at all times it can be hard to rack up assists against the Cavs, who rank fifth in the NBA in opponent assists per possession.

Zion Williamson's odds for assists is sitting at 5.5 which we can get at plus money. We’re getting those numbers because Zion has had some good assist games recently. But when you realize they were against teams like the Atlanta Hawks, Toronto Raptors, and Indiana Pacers, you can see how this number is a little high.

Despite this assist outburst, Williamson has still only eclipsed this number in three of his last six games. I’m backing the Under at plus money in a tough matchup.

Zion Williamson prop: Under 5.5 assists (+105 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: A Kings touch

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers are trying their best to slowly climb the Western Conference standings. They have won five of their last seven games and now sit in ninth place in the West.

One of the teams the Lakers are trying to track down is tonight’s opponent, the Sacramento Kings, who currently sit in seventh, two games ahead of L.A. Unfortunately, for the Lakers the Kings are their kryptonite. That is, of course, a team with seemingly unlimited sharpshooters. 

The Kings have used that shooting prowess to beat the Lakers three times this season and have the tools to do it again.

The Lakers have put up an inconsistent effort at the defensive end of the floor this season, which is why they rank 17th in D-rating and 18th in opponent effective field goal percentage. But it’s on the perimeter where it feels like they get, well, lazy.

L.A. allows the fifth most 3-point attempts per possession and the third most made threes per possession in the NBA this season while ranking 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.

The Kings have five guys taking at least 4.7 threes per game with all of them draining at least 35.5% of those attempts.

Tonight, my focus is on the De’Aaron Fox odds. The starting point guard takes the most threes for the Kings at 7.6 per contest at a clip of 36.6%. Now, Fox hit a bit of a cold patch, but it looks like he has busted out of it going 4-5 from three in last night’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Fox has also hit at least three threes in two of his three meetings against the Lakers this season. At the price we are getting here, it’s good value to back him to go three of four.

De'Aaron Fox prop: Over 2.5 threes (+120 at FanDuel)