The Illinois Fighting Illini entered the Big Ten tournament as the third overall favorite at select sportsbooks, despite being a No. 7 seed.
Illinois is far better than its place in the Big Ten bracket and will be at full strength for the first time in more than a month when it faces the Iowa Hawkeyes in Round 2 of the conference tournament tonight.
I’m riding with the Illini in my Iowa vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks below.
Who will win Iowa vs Illinois?
Given the sizable spread, Illinois has a very good chance of advancing to the quarterfinals. The Illini crushed the Hawkeyes by 20 points the last time they clashed.
Iowa vs Illinois prediction
My best bet: Illinois -10.5 (-110 at bet365)
Had everything gone according to plan, the Illinois Fighting Illini would likely have finished with a Top-4 seed and put their feet up for the first two rounds of the Big Ten tournament. However, a rash of injuries and illnesses put a speed bump in the Illini’s way back in February.
Those ailments manifested into a difficult stretch: Illinois went 2-4 SU in a six-game span. That stumble would cost the team a double bye despite a late-season surge that had the Fighting Illini winning their final three games of the schedule by an average of +16 points.
One of those victories was a 20-point blasting of the Iowa Hawkeyes on February 25. Illinois flexed its muscle on both ends of the floor, locking down a dangerous Hawkeyes offense for only 61 points while scoring 81 of its own on 50.8% shooting.
These programs collide again on Thursday, with the spread at the same spot it closed in that past matchup: Illini -11 on the neutral court at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Not only does Illinois have a significant rest advantage but also brings a full bus to Indianapolis.
For the first time in a long time, Illinois is at full strength. The frontcourt has been a game of musical chairs for the past two months, with big bodies coming in and out. Freshman forward Morez Johnson Jr. was sidelined with a broken wrist since Feb. 15 but is set to return to action tonight, giving the Illini depth and defense.
The game plan is pretty simple for Illinois. There’s a notable size advantage for the Fighting Illini around the rim, which leads to high percentage looks. According to ShotQualityBets, Illinois is ranked 26th in scoring at the rim and owns the 13th best 2-point field goal percentage in the land (57.6%).
Iowa, on the other hand, struggles to defend the interior. The Hawkeyes gave up a league high in points in the paint and sit 249th in protecting the rim. They allowed Ohio State to score 34 points inside last night and served up 42 PITP to the Illini in their first meeting.
Illinois’ offensive efficiency has Iowa starting too many possessions off the inbounds pass, rather than pushing tempo in transition. That slows the game considerably and allows a towering Illinois defense to set up in the halfcourt and take away the Hawkeyes’ strengths.
The last time these rivals played, junior guard Kylan Boswell took out Iowa standout Payton Sandfort. He hounded Sandfort and left him to go 2-for-10 from the floor and score only seven points — one of just six games which Sandfort failed to crack double figures in scoring this year.
The Hawkeyes are now running low on gas after a very physical matchup with Ohio State yesterday and playing in what will be their fifth away game in the past six outings. Iowa could hang around for the first half, but the girth of this Illini team will eventually wear the Hawkeyes out.
Illinois is a great second-half team and owned an average margin of +14 in the final 20 minutes of its last three regular season games.
Iowa vs Illinois same-game parlay (SGP)
Illinois -10.5
Kyle Boswell 10+ points
Brock Harding 3+ assists
The Fighting Illini will be too much for Iowa to handle on both ends, being able to slow down a tired Hawkeyes attack.
Boswell is part of a balanced Illinois scoring attack and is projected to score in double digits after scoring 15 against Iowa last time out.
Harding is forecasted to have four assists in this game, the same amount of helpers he had against Illinois last game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Illinois odds
Iowa vs Illinois live odds
Iowa vs Illinois opening odds
- Spread: Iowa +11 | Illinois -11
- Moneyline: Iowa +425 | Illinois -575
- Over/Under: Over 166 | Under 166
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Iowa vs Illinois betting trend to know
Illinois is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Illinois.
How to watch Iowa vs Illinois
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Thursday, 3-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Iowa vs Illinois key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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