It’s NBA trade deadline eve tonight and with 11 games on the schedule, it’s one final chance for teams to showcase who they are buying or selling.
It also means there are NBA player props galore and I’ve found my three favorites, including one for Jimmy Butler’s expected soon-to-be former team, and another for Bradley Beal, who says he wants to stay in the desert even though the Phoenix Suns could be major sellers.
Here are my NBA picks for Wednesday, Feb. 5.
Best NBA player props today
Robinson Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365) 
Porter Over 6.5 rebounds (-105 at bet365) 
Beal Under 18.5 points (-115 at bet365)
NBA player props for February 5
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 threes (+125 at bet365)
Please, Pat Riley. Just trade Jimmy Butler so we can move on with our lives and the Miami Heat can focus on basketball.
The Heat are coming off a tough 133-124 loss to the Chicago Bulls last night and will play the second half of back-to-back when they visit the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.
While the Heat are a bit of a mess, there are still a few guys that head coach Erik Spoelstra can count on, including Duncan Robinson.
The Heat sharpshooter is averaging 11.1 points per game while shooting 39.1% from 3-point range (a little below his career average actually) on 6.7 attempts, but he’s especially found his shooting rhythm lately.
Robinson is raining 42.6% of his 7.6 threes per game over the last nine, upping his scoring average up to 13.6 points over that stretch and he gets another good matchup tonight against the Sixers.
Joel Embiid returned for Philly last night and had a great game, recording a triple-double while leading his team to a 118-116 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. But it seems very unlikely Embiid will play in consecutive games at this point.
That leaves a Sixers team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating without its best defender once again. Additionally, Philly ranks 17th in 3-point attempts and 22nd in 3-point shooting percentage to opposing guards this season.
Now, Robinson only played 11 minutes last night after he was a late addition to the injury report, but he still managed to go 3-for-5 from the floor and 2-for-4 beyond the arc. I’m hoping this was just a precaution so Dunc can play in this game.
Robinson’s threes-made prop is sitting at 2.5 with the Over at a nice +125. With Robinson going Over this number in six of his last eight games, I’m willing to back him to stay hot at this price.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 Rebounds (-105 at bet365)
The horrible season for the New Orleans Pelicans continues as they play their second consecutive game against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena.
The Pelicans lost Monday’s matchup by a score of 125-113. It was their sixth straight loss overall and dropped their record to an ugly 12-38 for the season.
Injuries have clearly been an issue for the Pels and it has cost them dearly on the glass. They enter this game with the second-worst rebounding rate in the NBA while giving up the third-most opponent rebounds per game.
So, it’s not surprising that New Orleans lost the rebounding battle 46-41 to Denver on Monday night and I’m betting that happens again, which means I’m targeting a Nuggets player to go their rebounding prop tonight.
Nikola Jokic of course had 14 rebounds in that game but he has an elevated number juiced way to the Over. Instead, let’s look at Michael Porter Jr.
Porter is averaging 6.4 rebounds per game but has hauled down seven or more in five of his last 10 games, including seven in Monday night’s matchup. Porter’s rebounding prop is set at 6.5 and close to even money.
Give me the Over at that price, particularly considering our Covers Prop Projections have MPJ penciled in for 7.5 rebounds tonight.
Bradley Beal Under 18.5 Points (-115 at bet365)
I’m not sure people are appreciating just how good the Oklahoma City Thunder have become.
With or without Giannis Antetokoumnpo, the Thunder were going to be double-digit favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks. Now they are 13-point favorites for tonight’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns.
OKC enters this game with an NBA-best 39-9 record, the best net rating, and what looks like the league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
But the Thunder are so good because they are a complete team at both ends of the court and are a problem for opposing teams trying to get buckets. OKC leads the NBA in defensive rating, opponent-effective field goal percentage, and steals per game.
To me, that sounds like a tough night for Bradley Beal, who recently said he wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause.
It’s been a tough year in the desert for the former All-Star. Beal has been relegated to coming off the bench, and his 17.1 points per game is the lowest scoring average he’s had since his third year in the league.
His last 10 games have been even worse. He’s putting up just 14.7 points per game over that stretch. So, why is his point total sitting at 18.5 for this matchup against OKC?
Well, Beal has topped this number in three of his last six games, but let’s look at who he played in those games: Portland, Golden State, and Washington. Not exactly elite defensive units.
This matchup against the Thunder is a bad one for Beal. I think he’s more likely to score 10 points or fewer than go Over this number. So, I’ll happily take the Under 18.5.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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