The Phoenix Suns have new life in their pursuit of a play-in spot — and they’ve got the Dallas Mavericks, their opponents this afternoon, to thank for that.
Just 2.5 games separate these teams in the Western Conference standings with Dallas in free fall, and my Suns vs. Mavericks predictions expect Kevin Durant & Co. to finally show more of a ruthless streak here.
Read on for my NBA picks and betting tips for this Sunday, March 9 clash.
Suns vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
While the Dallas Mavericks would likely be content to slide out of the play-in and into the lottery, the Phoenix Suns are going all out to sneak into the postseason party — and you only have to look at Kevin Durant’s minutes load for confirmation of that.
Durant averaged 39.2 mpg in February, and he was on the court for 46 minutes in Friday’s overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets. Phoenix is unlikely to ease off that approach this afternoon, and that puts a spotlight on the Over for various KD props.
I’m taking the Over on his points prop here and counting on continued efficient scoring, with Durant shooting 49-for-94 (52.1%) from the field across his last five contests. He’s gone past this 25.5 O/U number in his last three outings, as well as in six of his past eight games.
Back in Texas, where he played his college ball, Durant should have extra motivation to put on a show — and we’ve got another intriguing subplot with Dallas potentially set to be among the KD trade suitors this offseason.
The Mavs are still reeling from a dramatic month, and the visitors’ offense should cash in this afternoon. Dallas has given up more than 120 points in all four games of this current skid, and this feels like a friendly matchup for Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal to take turns running the offense.
KD has taken a liking to this Mavs defense already this season, with a 35-point effort in December and a 31-point outing in October, and I’m wagering on more of the same here.
Suns vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Kevin Durant Over 25.5 points
Suns -7.5
Naji Marshall Over 7.5 rebounds
Neither team can point to good recent form, but this brutal stretch for Dallas makes the Phoenix situation look positively settled in comparison. The Mavs will be without Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II, and a string of other rotation pieces, and they haven’t covered the spread in any of their last five games.
The Suns are 4-2 ATS in their past six contests, and there’s something to build on after beating the Los Angeles Clippers and pushing the Nuggets to OT this week. I’m buying into that and laying the points in my SGP.
As bleak as things look for Dallas, Naji Marshall hasn’t thrown in the towel. If he can stay out of foul trouble today, I expect another big rebounding haul.
Marshall grabbed 17 boards against Memphis on Friday, on the heels of 11 rebounds against the Milwaukee Bucks in midweek. He’s going to get all the wing minutes he can handle here, and the Mavs will need him around the rim with most of their frontcourt rotation sidelined.
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Suns vs Mavericks odds
Suns vs Mavericks live odds
Suns vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Phoenix -7 | Dallas +7
- Moneyline: Phoenix -275 | Dallas +232
- Over/Under: Over 229.5 | Under 229.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Suns vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas boasts a 19-14 home record but has dropped three in a row at American Airlines Center.
- Though Phoenix is only 11-21 on its travels, the visitors have hit the 1H moneyline in 20 of their past 33 road games.
- The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these teams — and it’s 7-3 in the Mavs’ past 10 outings.
- The Suns’ recent trends tell a different story, with the Over hitting in seven of their last 10 games.
Suns vs Mavericks trend
The Suns have cashed in the Over in 30 of their last 46 road contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Suns vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Suns vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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