The No. 1 Houston Cougars host the Cincinnati Bearcats in NCAA basketball action on Tuesday night. The Cougars haven't been quite as dominant in Big 12 play as they had been in the AAC, but they're still the top-ranked team in the country and have gone 11-3 in conference play.
The transition to the Big 12 has been rockier for the Bearcats, who are tied for 11th in the conference with a 5-9 mark. While they were competitive against Houston earlier this month, they are expected to get blown out tonight, with college basketball odds installing the Cougars as 13.5-point home favorites.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Cincinnati vs. Houston on February 27.
Cincinnati vs Houston best odds
Cincinnati vs Houston picks and predictions
These teams had a competitive clash back on February 10, with the Cincinnati Bearcats leading at the half before eventually falling by a final score of 67-62.
However, don't expect today's contest to be anywhere near as close. Keep in mind that Cincy turned the ball over just eight times in that contest but is second-last in conference play in TO rate (20.6%), while the Houston Cougars force turnovers at the third-highest rate in the country (21.7%).
The Cougars also struggled to score in that first meeting, but they've been far more efficient offensively at home. On the road, they are averaging a modest 104.4 points per 100 possessions, but that number surges to 117.4 points per 100 possessions at the Fertitta Center.
They have also been incredibly stingy on defense at home, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 40.2% — the second-lowest number in the country. They'll be able to lock up a Bearcats squad that has a brutal 45.8 EFG% on the road.
In the Cougars' last home game, they beat Iowa State 73-65. They failed to cover the spread but that was against a defensively elite Cyclones squad that is the No. 8 ranked team in the country.
In their previous six home games in conference play, they destroyed Texas by 21 points, Oklahoma State by 16, Kansas State by 22, UCF by 15, Texas Tech by 23, and West Virginia by 34. On the season, they've gone a perfect 15-0 at home with an average scoring margin of +28.9 points per game.
The Bearcats have generally been competitive in away contests this season, but they are coming off an ugly 75-57 road loss to TCU and I expect them to get stomped again here.
My best bet: Houston -13.5 (-110 at bet365)
Cincinnati vs Houston same-game parlay
Houston -13.5
Jamal Shead Over 1.5 threes
L.J. Cryer Under 2.5 rebounds
Jamal Shead has knocked down at least a pair of treys in six of his last nine games. He also shoots far better at home, where he hits 43.8% of his shots from beyond the arc. The Bearcats do a poor job of defending the perimeter and rank 304th in the country at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.
Cryer leads Houston with 15.0 points per game but he doesn't do much on the glass. The 6-foot-1 guard has snagged more than 2.5 rebounds just once in his last eight games, and the Bearcats are seventh in the country in rebounding rate thanks to their massive size down low.
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Cincinnati vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis
Houston opened as a 13.5-point home favorite with the Over/Under at 132.5, and neither the spread nor the total has moved as of 1 p.m. ET.
Although the Bearcats have won just four of their last 13 games, they have gone 7-6 against the spread during that span. While they are coming off a lopsided road loss to TCU, they've put together some strong performances on the road. Cincinnati upset BYU and Texas Tech on the road while hanging tough with Kansas and Baylor.
The Cougars are coming off an overtime win against Baylor where they covered as 2.5-point road faves. They are 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven games overall, but have gone an impressive 9-4-2 ATS at home this season despite some massive spreads.
With the top-rated defense in the country per KenPom and a sluggish pace (346th in adjusted tempo), the Cougars have seen plenty of lower-scoring games. That said, with oddsmakers setting some extremely low totals, the Over has cashed in six of their last seven contests.
However, the one game during that span that went below the total was the previous meeting between these teams, which had an identical O/U of 132.5.
Cincinnati vs Houston betting trend to know
The Cougars have covered the first-half spread in 21 of their last 35 games (+6.15 Units / 15% ROI), while the Bearcats are 15-18 ATS on the 1H spread in their previous 33 contests. Find more college basketball betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Houston.
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Cincinnati vs Houston game info
| Location: | Fertitta Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 27, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Cincinnati vs Houston key injuries
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