Illinois vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offense Reigns Supreme in Big Ten Clash

In one of the best matchups of the college basketball season so far, No. 9 Illinois heads to West Lafayette to take on No. 1 Purdue in a clash of Big Ten programs hoping to land top seeds come March.

Given the circumstances around the Illini program right now — leading scorer Terrence Shannon Jr. is facing sexual assault charges and has been suspended from the program as a result — the college basketball odds have the Boilermakers listed as a 10-point home favorite. With both of these high-scoring offenses, this could quickly turn into a shootout.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Illinois vs. Purdue on Friday, January 5.

Illinois vs Purdue best odds

Illinois vs Purdue picks and predictions

Outside of a shocking 92-89 overtime loss to Northwestern earlier in the season, Purdue has been a juggernaut at running through some of the best programs in the country. Matt Painter’s team is 4-0 against Top 25 teams, and each one it has faced has ranked at least 11th in the nation.

In those four games — against Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, and Arizona — Purdue’s offense has come to play. It’s averaged 78.5 points against those teams, including a 92-point showing against previously ranked No. 1 Arizona.

The combination of Purdue’s offense and its struggles on defense pair well against an Illinois team that’s still been able to hang points despite the situation with Shannon Jr. This season, Purdue is scoring 85.4 points per game, 17th best in the country, and has only scored less than 78 points three times. Led by Zach Edey, the Boilermakers are averaging 80.6 points per game in Big Ten play.

Edey’s dominance down low in the paint has allowed Purdue to thrive on the outside. His size advantage has allowed him to average 23.1 points per game — nearly a point more than last year — and 10.3 rebounds per game, including 3.8 on the offensive end. Teams selling out trying to stop the 7-foot-4 Canadian has turned the Boilermakers into one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.

While opponents focus on the big man, Purdue’s been able to connect on 38.9% of its threes, 17th best in the country. Starting guards Lance Jones, Fletcher Loyer, and Braden Smith have been the biggest beneficiaries with the three of them, combining to hit 5.2 threes on 13.2 attempts (39.3%).

Off the bench, Mason Gillis has even given Painter’s squad a frontcourt player who can stretch the floor; he’s shooting 51.9% from three and playing 18.2 minutes per game. The Illini are also outside of the Top 100 at defending the three, allowing teams to hit at a 31.1% clip.

Meanwhile, Purdue has stumbled at times on the defensive end. On the season, Purdue’s allowing 67 points per game, 94th in the country, and that number jumps up to 72.2 against top-25 teams.

Attacking Purdue in the mid-range seems to be the best way to get after them given Edey’s size down low. The Boilermakers are allowing teams to shoot 47.1% from the field, and the Illini thrive in that area of the floor. Even without Shannon Jr., Illinois has managed to average 100 points in two games since his suspension.

Overall, Purdue’s in a great position to show off its offensive prowess against this Illinois team, but the Illini will certainly help the Over cash. 

My best bet: Over 153.5 (-110 at bet365)

Illinois vs Purdue same-game parlay

Over 153.5

Zach Edey Over 23.5 points

Marcus Domask Over 14.5 points

+375 at bet365

It’s been the Edey show all season at the Mackey Complex, and even the best programs in the country haven’t been able to slow the big man down. Edey’s averaging 24.5 points per game against Top 25 teams this season.

In Big Ten play, he’s been even better scoring 27.6 points per game in three conference matchups. Edey is poised to continue to put up points in this one against an Illinois team that’s not going to roll over.

Without Shannon Jr., Marcus Domask has stepped up. In the win against Northwestern earlier this week, he scored 32 and flashed his mid-range game by shooting 10 of 14 from the field. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Illinois vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

The Boilermakers have been heavy favorites from the start and there’s been very little line movement. Most books opened with Purdue -10 and have only shifted a half point at most.

Purdue has been one of the best teams against the spread this season at 9-3-1, including 3-1 against Top 25 teams. Illinois is 7-4-2 ATS and 2-1 as underdogs.

The total opened as high as 157 with most books settling in between 154.5 and 153.5. Purdue is 9-5 when betting the Over this season and 3-1 against Top 25 teams. Meanwhile, Illinois is 7-6 to the Over and 2-1 against Top 25 programs.

Illinois vs Purdue betting trend to know

Purdue has hit the game total Over in 15 of its last 23 games at home (+6.20 Units / 25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Purdue.

Illinois vs Purdue game info

Illinois vs Purdue key injuries

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