The Kentucky Wildcats hope to salvage their season on Saturday night when they visit the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Wildcats' offense has been atrocious, and my Kentucky vs. Tennesee predictions explain why the Vols will tear them up in the opening 30 minutes.
Read more in my college football picks for Saturday, November 2.
Kentucky vs Tennessee prediction and best bet
My best bet
Tennessee first half -9.5 (-125 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Auburn had to come back from a 10-0 hole against Kentucky last week, and there was a key moment when the game swung completely in its favor. It happened once it started handing the football off.
See, the Tigers decided they wanted to throw the ball out of the gate. Nearly every play in their first three possessions was a designed pass, and it led to two punts and an interception. But once the Tigers realized they could run the ball, it was all over.
The Tennessee Volunteers have had two weeks to put together a game plan, and I guarantee it involves feeding the ball to Dylan Sampson. The Tennessee running back has had 22+ carries in four straight games, averaging 4.86 yards per carry against SEC opponents.
Kentucky is banged up on both sides of the ball, but the loss of D’Eryk Jackson and JJ Weaver is a massive blow to a defense wearing down. Both are key cogs to a front seven allowing 3.94 yards per carry to SEC running backs—third-most in conference play.
Offensively, Brock Vandagriff has been poor, and his performance at night in The Swamp won’t instill much confidence he’ll thrive in Rocky Top. Gavin Wimsatt saw time last week and could be inserted earlier here, but he completed just three of 10 passes against Auburn and wasn’t good in tough environments for Rutgers last season.
The best way for Tennessee to limit its turnovers is to let Sampson work early and often and utilize Nico Iamaleava in the play-action game. Kentucky has given up the most chunk runs of any team in SEC competition, allowing 34 runs of 10+ yards to conference foes in six games and nine runs of at least 20 yards.
The Volunteers' defense allows the second-fewest yards per play to conference foes and will cause real problems for a Kentucky offense ranked second-worst in SEC play in yards per play. Look for Tennessee to put this one away before halftime.
Kentucky vs Tennessee same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee first half -9.5
Dylan Sampson 125+ rushing yards
Dylan Sampson first team touchdown
Given his recent workload and the frailties with Kentucky’s front seven, I will be shocked if Sampson fails to reach 20 carries again. He’s been a workhorse of late for the Volunteers, and he’s good for at least one big run per game. I expect Sampson to get into the open multiple times against the Wildcats to eclipse the 125-yard mark.
Sampson is also the go-to guy inside the 10-yard line. He’s scored Tennessee’s first touchdown in three straight SEC games and will be relied upon against a Kentucky defense that defends the pass quite well inside the red zone. I like him to be the first Volunteer to find paydirt yet again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kentucky vs Tennessee odds
Kentucky vs Tennessee live odds
Kentucky vs Tennessee opening odds
- Kentucky vs. Tennessee spread: Tennessee -15.5
- Kentucky vs. Tennessee moneyline: Kentucky +525, Tennessee -750
- Kentucky vs. Tennessee Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Kentucky vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tennessee opened as a 15.5-point favorite but the line has since moved to -17.5 with Kentucky’s injury news.
- Tennessee is well rested and presents matchup nightmares on both sides of the ball for Kentucky. I love the first-half spread more as I think it’s better value than the game number, but I still like the Vols to cover up in a game that could end up getting ugly.
- There’s been minimal movement with the total, which came up a point to 45.5 after opening.
- I lean Under here, but it all depends on whether Josh Heupel calls off the dogs or not. Kentucky’s offense can’t be relied on for points unless the Vols turn the ball over and give up short fields, and Tennessee could run this up if the Wildcats wear down after halftime.
Kentucky vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Kentucky has hit the first quarter game total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Kentucky vs Tennessee.
Kentucky vs Tennessee game info
| Location: | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-2, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SEC Network |
Kentucky vs Tennessee latest injuries
Kentucky vs Tennessee weather
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