College Football Predictions and Picks for Week 10: The Will to Win

Welcome to November, when you should know what a team is. If you don’t, betting for or against them is a worry.

Sportsbooks and oddsmakers also know what a team is, but they often struggle to adapt quickly enough to the degree of a failed offense, to an offense getting by because of a faulty schedule, or to a change in course during the year.

Each of those will inspire a best bet in my Week 10 college football picks, with two more plus-money touchdown props coming at the end because those two quarterbacks have insisted on scoring when it matters most this season.

We march toward the black, 19-21 and -0.93 on the year after last week’s 3-2 for +1.48 units. And we are OK marching slowly. Patience and value, those are the keys in November.

College football predictions for Week 10

• Boise State -23.5 (-110)
• Clemson -10 (-110)
• Nebraska -6.5 (-110)
• Virginia Tech -3.5 (-115)
• Howard anytime touchdown (+195)
• Gabriel anytime touchdown (+200)

Picks made on 10-31. Click on each pick to see full analysis.

College football Week 10 predictions

Boise State -23.5 vs. San Diego State

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

What, did you have something better to do Friday night than watch the Boise State Broncos suffocate the San Diego State Aztecs in a blowout? Yes, this Friday night game should be one-sided, but it should also be profitable.

Broncos star running back and Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty was "held in check" last week, if you can call 128 yards and a game-winning touchdown on 33 carries "in check". But, sincerely, that was. UNLV held the best ball-carrier in the country to 3.88 yards per attempt. His previous low this season had been 7.0.

Jeanty will not be contained against San Diego State. Not against a defense that ranks No. 114 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush against, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. In particular, the Aztecs give up explosive rushes, Jeanty’s favorite treat.

The real reason to bet on this blowout is not Jeanty. It is San Diego State’s offense. Aztecs head coach Sean Lewis has more work to do than he expected, an offense ranking No. 123 in EPA and incapable of producing anything of quality.

Jeanty will stake Boise State a lead. He may not play the whole game if things get lopsided. The saving grace of the blowout will be San Diego State’s inability to mount a quality possession — No. 117 in the country in doing so 32.5% of the time — to even threaten a backdoor cover.

Let it be known that this bet was also included in this week’s College Football 134, available on all your podcast platforms on Tuesday evenings in an effort to get you value early in the week.

Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast

Join Douglas, and co-host Andrew Caley, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below:

Clemson -10 vs. Louisville

Best odds: -110 at DraftKings

This has been said before, and it will be said again. As long as the world praises this Louisville Cardinals offense and head coach Jeff Brohm, it needs to be remembered that the Cardinals are overly dependent on explosive pass plays.

Louisville has a quality offense. Do not misconstrue that criticism. It's just not as high a quality as the world maintains. There's a reason the Cardinals rank No. 75 in late-down success rate. When Louisville cannot hit big plays, it struggles.

The Clemson Tigers are far more balanced offensively, almost assured of points. Since losing the season opener against Georgia, the Tigers have averaged a casual 48.5 points per game.

If and when Clemson interrupts a couple of Louisville pass plays early, the Tigers will build a lead. At that point, every Cardinals’ play will effectively be a late-down scenario.

Dabo Swinney is an experienced enough head coach to then dial up his pass rush while keeping his secondary intact, limiting any possible Tyler Shough heroics.

Nebraska -6.5 vs. UCLA

Best odds: -110 at BetMGM

We, as a college football society, have not spent enough time pointing out how bad the UCLA Bruins are this season. The Bruins upset Rutgers two weeks ago, snapping a five-game losing streak and distracting the world from a 2-5 start to DeShaun Foster’s tenure.

We, as a gambling society, did not realize how bad UCLA was because the Bruins covered most of those games, now 4-3 against the spread and 4-1 in their last five, but four of those five losses were still all by multiple possessions.

Getting outscored 17-0 by LSU in the second half was hardly the sign of a strong team. Oregon simply did not care to embellish its 28-10 halftime lead, the Ducks having bigger concerns this season. Penn State won the second half 13-8, all eight of UCLA’s points coming with 16 seconds left. These games have not been competitive.

It’s time to realize that and bask in the Nebraska Cornhuskers’ chance to reach its first bowl game in eight years. The Huskers will want that glory at home, and the Bruins are too poor at all aspects of football to keep this within a touchdown.

Let’s do my mother proud and find something nice to say about UCLA. Ummmm. I suppose this is why the second half of that life advice was, “then don’t say anything at all.”

Best Bets column cutting room floor:
South Carolina +3.5 -- I just don't trust that offense to keep this interesting. Beamer Ball needs to produce.
UConn -7.5 -- A hook on a weeknight bothers me. Glad I caught -7 on Sunday.

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 31, 2024

Virginia Tech -3.5 at Syracuse

Best odds: -115 at FanDuel

Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyren Drones began the season rushing 23 times in the first two games for 81 yards, a 3.5 yards per carry average, sacks adjusted. Related: Virginia Tech went 1-1 outright in those games, 0-2 against the spread.

Then the Hokies coaching staff remembered what it has, cutting Drones loose. Rather than his runs getting caught at the line of scrimmage, often not even designed, he found space to chase first downs. In the last six games, Drones has rushed only eight times per game, but he's gained 342 yards, averaging 7.1 yards per carry, again sacks adjusted.

Redesigning the offensive scheme to highlight Drones has broken Virginia Tech loose, going 5-1 ATS since then, the exception against Rutgers back when the Knights were still moderately healthy.

Since that shift, the Hokies have cashed four of six Overs on their team totals, compared to going 0-2 to start the season. Even including the two team total Unders in the last six games, Virginia Tech’s offense has produced four points per game more than bookmakers roughly expected.

Now facing a decidedly average defense, the Hokies should put up plenty of points to cover this short spread.

I am told I dropped a hot taek on Alabama during today's "College Football 134." Whoops. Also,
🔸Some Texas A&M doubt
🔸Some Ohio St doubt
🔸Plenty Army & Navy talk
🔸@statsowar comes in to agree with @Covers_Caley.
iTunes: https://t.co/8u0l7YlSJn
Spotify: https://t.co/Ro0SIERSdX

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 29, 2024

Will Howard anytime touchdown

Best odds: +195 at FanDuel

Note: This is for half a unit, as is the next bet, a rather similar one.

Will Howard has rushed for five touchdowns in seven games this season. He's now facing a stout defensive line and Ohio State has a significant concern on its offensive line with starting left tackle Josh Simmons out for the season and his backup Zen Michalski, at best, injured last week and at worst, simply ineffective.

That actually creates value on Howard scoring again. The Buckeyes can devote a running back to help set an edge while Howard presses toward the goal line.

This prop probably had value regardless, but Ohio State’s offensive worry at the moment emphasizes Howard’s dual-threat ability.

Dillon Gabriel anytime touchdown

Best odds: +200 at FanDuel

Note: Again, this is for half a unit.

Dillon Gabriel has scored in five of eight games this season. The three exceptions were all the furthest things from competitive. Oregon’s offense may not have exploded against FCS-level Idaho, but no one was ever worried. Easing past UCLA had similar vibes. And a few Friday nights ago, Purdue proved the worst of those three foes.

In any moment feigning competitiveness, Gabriel has taken on some of the offensive scoring workload. Michigan may be bad this year, but a road trip to The Big House still represents a moment feigning competitiveness.

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