The No. 9 Baylor Bears take on the No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
This game currently has a 1-point spread, and my Baylor vs. Mississippi State predictions are backing the Bears in what is expected to be a close contest.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region clash on March 21, with tipoff at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Who will win Baylor vs Mississippi State?
Top-to-bottom, the Bears boast a better lineup than the Bulldogs. While both teams have looked shaky lately and struggle to defend 3-pointers, Baylor has significantly better outside shooters.
That's enough for me to back Scott Drew's experienced squad as a small dog.
Baylor vs Mississippi State prediction
My best bet: Baylor moneyline (+100 at bet365)
The Mississippi State Bulldogs enter the tourney mired in a skid, having lost five of their last seven games. Their only wins during that span came against LSU, the SEC’s second-worst team, while they suffered losses to Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma — all of whom rank below the Baylor Bears in the KenPom ratings.
Both teams have struggled to defend the arc, with Baylor ranking 277th in opponent 3-point percentage (35.4%) and Mississippi State sitting even lower at 314th (36.1%). However, the Bears do a much better job of knocking outside shots. They shoot 34.7% from deep, while the Bulldogs are 297th with a 31.4 3PT%.
While the Bulldogs have an excellent lead guard in Josh Hubbard (18.7 ppg) and a pair of quality bigs in Cameron Matthews and KeShawn Murphy, Baylor's lineup is absolutely stacked.
Guard V.J. Edgecombe (15.1 ppg) looks like a Top-10 pick in the upcoming NBA draft and Robert Wright III (11.3 ppg, 4.3 apg) is another impact freshman. Forward Nochard Omier (15.9 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 56.7 FG%) was also an All Big-12 selection, while experienced guards Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, Langston Love, and Jalen Celestine provide more punch on the perimeter.
KenPom and Bart Torvik are both projecting the Bears to win by a point, so I'll lean toward Baylor as a small underdog.
Baylor vs Mississippi State same-game parlay (SGP)
Baylor moneyline
Josh Hubbard 3+ threes
V.J. Edgecombe Over 16.5 points
Josh Hubbard has knocked down at least three treys in six of his last eight games. Baylor is also 341st in the country at allowing high-quality threes, which will lead to open looks for Hubbard — who has taken a whopping 37 3-point attempts over his last three contests.
Mississippi State also struggles to defend the perimeter and it doesn't have the athleticism to handle Edgecombe on the wing. Although Edgecombe is coming off an 11-point performance against Texas Tech, the Baylor guard had scored at least 18 points in his previous three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Baylor vs Mississippi State odds
Baylor vs Mississippi State live odds
Baylor vs Mississippi State opening odds
- Spread: Baylor PK | Mississippi State PK
- Moneyline: Baylor -110 | Mississippi State -110
- Over/Under: Over 144 | Under 144
Odds courtesy of bet365
Baylor vs Mississippi State betting trend to know
The Over is 6-1 in Mississippi State's last seven games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Mississippi State.
How to watch Baylor vs Mississippi State
| Region | East |
| Location | Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Baylor vs Mississippi State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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