Colorado State vs Virginia Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Slow and Steady, March Madness Hits an Over

Two teams that faced some struggles down the stretch will get a shot to join the March Madness bracket when the Colorado State Rams face the Virginia Cavaliers in the late First Four matchup tonight.

Colorado State (24-10) lost four of its last seven regular season games before making a run in the Mountain West Tournament, losing to the New Mexico Lobos in the semifinals. Virginia (23-10) also went 3-4 to wrap up its regular season and likely saved its March Madness odds with a 66-60 overtime win over the Boston College Eagles in the ACC Tournament. 

The Cavaliers play one of the most distinctive styles of basketball in the country, slowing the game to a crawl and frustrating opponents with suffocating defense. That has led sportsbooks to set an extremely low total for this game for March Madness picks. We’ll break down which side bettors should take in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Colorado State vs. Virginia. 

Colorado State vs Virginia best odds

Colorado State vs Virginia picks and predictions

There are three things that every college basketball fan knows about the Virginia Cavaliers. First, they play at an astoundingly slow pace, ranking dead last at KenPom in adjusted tempo. Secondly, they play outstanding defense, holding opponents to 40.2% shooting and 59.6 points per game — impressive numbers even given the lack of possessions in their games. Finally, they can’t score much themselves, putting up just 63.6 ppg on offense. 

None of this is new information. Virginia has lived and died by this style of play under Tony Bennett, and while it doesn’t make for the most enjoyable basketball to watch for most fans, it has been largely effective. The Cavaliers won the 2019 NCAA Tournament playing this way, and the frustrating nature of their game has allowed them to beat more talented teams on many occasions. 

You may know a little less about the Colorado State Rams. They also play fairly slowly — the Rams rank 270th in adjusted tempo — but are much more balanced than the Cavaliers, playing quality basketball on both ends of the court. While they can shut teams down, the Rams also feature four players who score in double figures, including senior guard Isaiah Stevens (16.5 ppg), who has been a consistent presence at Colorado State for five seasons.

Overall, the Rams play something that looks a lot more like a typical game of college basketball than Virginia does. Colorado State averages 76.4 points and gives up 68.4. They’re hardly running a track meet, but the Rams won’t put you to sleep by the end of the first half.

So what have sportsbooks done with this information? They set the total for tonight’s game at just 120.5 points, an incredibly low number in most circumstances. The logic is Virginia will keep the game as slow as possible, and Colorado State won’t really do anything to speed it up. 

But the numbers tell another story. The Rams have played above this total in 32 of their 34 games this year. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers haven’t consistently been able to keep scoring down, having hit the Over in four of their last five games — all of which were played at higher totals than tonight’s game. Virginia has also gone Over 120.5 points in 20 of their 33 games this season. 

This is a case of oddsmakers looking at the real tendencies of a team and going way too far with the line they produce as a result. There’s no chance this game threatens the 200-point — or probably even the 150-point — barrier, but it should easily reach the paltry total sites are offering. I’m taking the Over.

My best bet: Over 120.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 25% boost available

Colorado State vs Virginia same-game parlay

Over 120.5

Colorado State moneyline

Isaiah Stevens Over 5.5 assists

+368 at FanDuel

My same-game parlay will combine my best bet with a couple of other picks that fit what we’ve seen from these teams this year. We’ll start with the Over, and pair that with a moneyline bet on Colorado State. The Rams have been the better team this season, and bettors recognize this, as the line has been moving in their direction. Still, the Virginia defense has a habit of keeping games close, so I’m going with the moneyline rather than the spread. 

Finally, let’s take Stevens to hit the Over on 5.5 assists. Stevens averages seven helpers per game, and Virginia won’t give up a lot of easy buckets, meaning Colorado State will have to move the ball, padding its assists totals. Stevens has hit this number in eight of his last 12 games, and I see him doing it again here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado State vs Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

Colorado State opened as a one-point favorite. Bettors have stretched that line, with Rams -2.5 now the most common spread as of midday on Monday, though some books are sticking at a flat two points. There are several discounting lines out there; you can get -105 on Virginia +2, or -105 on Colorado State -2.5 by shopping around.

Colorado State has played right around the spread all year, going 16-16 ATS on the season. Virginia has been only slightly better at 17-15-1 ATS. 

While this has the potential to be a very close game, I like Colorado State to pull out the win. The Rams are the better team overall, as they play excellent defense but pair it with a capable offense, something the Cavaliers have rarely shown this year. Because of the defensive prowess of Virginia, I’d prefer to take the Rams on the moneyline, but I’m also leaning towards Colorado State on the spread.

The total for this game opened at 118.5 points. That number has come up, and the consensus Over/Under now sits at 120.5 points, with -110 available on both sides at most books. 

It’s no surprise that these two teams — both playing at slow tempos — have hit the Under a lot this year. The Under has gone 18-15 in Virginia’s games, while it also has an 18-13-1 advantage when Colorado State plays this season.

There’s always the temptation to just take the Under when a team like Virginia plays, but you always have to take the number being offered into account. In this case, even with the total being bet up a couple of points, the Over/Under is still way too low given what we’ve seen out of these teams this season. Neither team regularly goes Under 121 points. Colorado State never does, no matter who they play. I’m taking the Over in this one.

Colorado State vs Virginia betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in Virginia’s last five games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado State vs. Virginia.

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Colorado State vs Virginia game info

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