The No. 1 Florida Gators advanced to the Sweet 16 after taking UConn’s best shot, setting up a monster matchup with the No. 4 Maryland Terrapins tonight.
The Gators knocked off the defending national champs, but the Huskies may have laid a blueprint for how to slow down this potent UF attack: clogging up the interior and putting the onus on Florida’s guards to do the heavy lifting.
Answering that call was senior guard Alijah Martin, who's been huge for the Gators during the NCAA Tournament. I’m counting on Martin to once again step up with my best Maryland vs. Florida predictions and March Madness picks for Thursday, March 27.
Who will win Maryland vs Florida?
Most game models call for a closer contest than the oddsmakers’ expectations, and my personal bracket pushed Maryland through, as I’ve been high on the Terps all season. Outright college basketball odds give the Gators an implied win probability of 73%.
Neither team looked great in the Round of 32, and my faith in Maryland wavered after a bad showing against Colorado State. The 'Crab Five' has the talent to run with a deep UF lineup, so I’ll stick to my original assessment of the Terrapins.
Maryland vs Florida prediction
My best bet: Alijah Martin Over 13.5 points (+100 at bet365)
The Florida Gators’ talent-rich frontcourt found little space to operate against UConn in the Round of 32, with the Huskies selling out on stopping UF’s inside attack. Connecticut fronted post players and waited with weak side help, which limited the Florida forwards.
The Gators’ main frontcourt rotation finished a collective 5-for-13 from the field, which left Florida’s backcourt with a busy night. The Gators’ guards took 37 of the team’s total 50 field goal attempts, with 12 shots coming from Alijah Martin.
The senior finished an efficient 7-for-12 from the floor (2-for-4 on 3-point) and added two free throws to score 18 points in the 77-75 victory. Martin opened the NCAA Tournament with 17 points against Norfolk State, shooting 5-for-10 from the floor and knocking down 5 of 6 from the charity stripe in a No. 1 vs. No. 16 squash.
Both of those tournament efforts topped his scoring prop totals of 12.5 and 13.5 points. That’s been a standard Over/Under for him in recent games, with numbers ranging from 12.5 to 14.5 points. His scoring total for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup with Maryland is 13.5 (Over +100).
Martin has gone Over his scoring prop in four of his last five games — all postseason — and has put up 14+ points in 18 of his 25 appearances since the calendar flipped to 2025.
He’s most comfortable in the spot-up role but is a very strong guard and can bully smaller defenders in isolation (Maryland 211th in defending iso sets). He had strong finishes at the basket against UConn and now faces a Maryland defense rated 194th at defending the rim, according to ShotQualityBets.
Should the Terrapins take a similar approach to shutting down Florida’s frontcourt, the space and touches will be there for Martin to topple his point total. Game models for the Sweet 16 range from 13.0 to 15.3 points, with my number sitting just shy of 15 points from Martin.
Considering some other sportsbooks have Martin Over 13.5 priced as high as -125, we’re getting great value at +100 given the points projection.
Maryland vs Florida same-game parlay (SGP)
Alijah Martin Over 13.5 points
Derik Queen 10+ rebounds
Maryland +6.5
Alijah Martin has stepped up his game in postseason play for Florida, and his projections call for closer to 15 points.
Derik Queen is forecasted for 10+ rebounds in an up-tempo game with both teams playing with pace.
Game models range from Florida by six to as short as Florida by 2.5 points. The 'Crab Five' have the talent to trade shots with UF.
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Maryland vs Florida odds
Maryland vs Florida live odds
Maryland vs Florida opening odds
- Spread: Maryland +6.5 (-110) | Florida -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Maryland +240 | Florida -300
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-110) | Under 155.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Maryland vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida has gone Over the total in nine straight games (+9.00 units / 90% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Florida.
How to watch Maryland vs Florida
| Region | West |
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Thursday, 3-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:39 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS, truTV |
Maryland vs Florida key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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