Michigan State vs Mississippi State Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Smith Opens March Madness With a Bang

The first game of the 2024 NCAA Tournament features the No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs and No. 9 Michigan State Spartans in the West Region of the March Madness bracket.

These programs are not only battling to advance to the Round of 32 but for the title of the one true “MSU."

Sorry, Missouri State.

If the seeding matchup doesn’t set the stage for a closely contested game to make March Madness picks on, then the March Madness odds do. Michigan State opened as a slim 1.5-point favorite in Charlotte shortly after Selection Sunday wrapped, with some spots now down to a 1-point spread in the latest lines.

I dig into that spread and the Over/Under total for this "All MSU Matchup" and give my best college basketball picks for Mississippi State vs. Michigan State today.

Michigan State vs Mississippi State best odds

Michigan State vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

If Michigan State is going to slow down Mississippi State, it will have to pick its poison. 

The Bulldogs have a great inside-out combo on offense, with lightning-quick freshman star Josh Hubbard and bruising big man Tolu Smith. Given the Spartans’ recent luck versus elite bigs, Smith may be in line for a solid showing in the Round of 64. 

Michigan State just tangled with Purdue’s Zach Edey in the Big Ten tournament and allowed 29 points to the superstar 7-footer. Edey dropped 32 points on the Green and White earlier in the season as well. The Spartans have also been beaten up by the likes of Minnesota’s Dawson Garcia (22, points vs. MSU) and Indiana’s Kel'el Ware (28 points).

Since returning from a foot injury that held him out of non-conference play, Smith has averaged 15.2 points on the season. His scoring prop for Thursday’s tournament opener is at just 13.5 points, with the Under juiced to -125. 

This shorter number reflects his recent outputs, which were dampened by foul trouble and some style mismatches, facing three faster-paced teams in the SEC tournament.

The 6-foot-11 senior had 10 points versus Auburn in the SEC championship game, going 3-for-8 from the floor in a more up-tempo contest. Before that, he was limited to eight points in postseason games against LSU and Tennessee, playing just 23 minutes in the win over the Volunteers.

However, Smith closed the SEC regular season scoring 14 points or more in five of his final six contests. He was logging just short of 28 minutes per game for his first 15 outings but saw an uptick in action in the home stretch of SEC play, logging 30 or more minutes in five of his last seven games overall.

Not only does Smith shoot a high percentage inside and pick up easy putbacks on the offensive glass (averages 3.4 offensive rebounds), but he creates contact and gets to the foul line, which is how many of those past post players have hurt the Spartans.

Michigan State runs a much more methodical pace than the Bulldogs’ last three opponents, and its defense pushes foes deep into the shot clock. That slowed-down style better fits Smith’s post-up game, and projections have him hovering just above 13.5 points, given he plays around 33 minutes.  

My best bet: Tolu Smith Over 13.5 points (-105 at bet365)

Michigan State vs Mississippi State same-game parlay

Tolu Smith Over 13.5 points

Over 130.5

Tyson Walker Over 16.5 points

+400 at bet365

Smith is the next in a series of talented bigs to bully Michigan State inside. This slower tempo better suits his style.

This total has moved a lot since opening, but with game projections calling for as many as 134 points, we’ll go Over.

Meanwhile, Tyson Walker will be called upon to keep Michigan State close. He’s forecasted for as many as 19 points in the Round of 64.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan State vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned, Michigan State opened as a 1.5-point favorite and has stayed there for the most part in the first 48 hours of action. 

Some shops are dealing the Spartans as short as -1, on Tuesday afternoon. According to Covers Consensus, 57% of picks are backing the Bulldogs.

It’s tough to count out Tom Izzo’s program come tourney time, as the legendary coach tends to take even the most adequate teams into the second week of the Big Dance. This year’s Spartans enter the NCAA Tournament with a less-than-impressive finish to Big Ten play, losing four of the final five games of the regular season. 

Michigan State did, however, give No. 1 seed Purdue all it could handle in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament, losing 67-62 as a 7.5-point underdog. On the season, the Spartans are 18-14-1 against the spread.

Mississippi State also backed into the postseason on a four-game slide, but the Bulldogs advanced to the SEC tournament final after stunning Tennessee in the semis. The Bulldogs covered as underdogs in all three tournament games, including losing 73-66 to Auburn as 8-point pups.

Thursday’s total opened at 127.5 points shortly after the selection show and quickly darted to as high as 130.5 points. According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are on the Under as of Tuesday afternoon.

Michigan State is 14-19 O/U on the season, leaning into the defensive end to win games. The Spartans enter the NCAA Tournament on a 2-6 O/U run in their last eight games.

Mississippi State boasts a 16-18 O/U count on the year. While the Bulldogs went 5-1 O/U in their last six games of SEC play, their run in the tournament produced three straight Under winners.

Michigan State vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

While Tolu Smith struggled to score in the SEC tournament, he put up 14 points or more in seven of his last 10 games of the regular season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Mississippi State.

Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience

Make your March Madness wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!

Sign Up Now 

Michigan State vs Mississippi State game info

Michigan State vs Mississippi State key injuries

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic