West Virginia vs Maryland Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Mountaineers Are Made for March

West Virginia and Maryland are set to meet on Thursday when the Mountaineers and Terrapins square off in the first round of our March Madness picks. 

In what's expected to be one of the closest games of the Round of 64 according to March Madness odds, which program holds the betting edge? Find out in our free college basketball picks and predictions for West Virginia vs. Maryland on March 16.

West Virginia vs Maryland best odds

West Virginia vs Maryland picks and predictions

With West Virginia favored by two points, a line that has moved just a half a point down from -2.5 on Sunday night, this game comes down to the quintessential question: Who will win a toss-up, and not just the one to start the game?

Both the Mountaineers and the Terrapins are within the Top 25 of KenPom rankings, suggesting both aren't being given enough respect by the committee. Neither team has any notable injury dampening its seed either, which further adds to the confusion of this placement.

There are hardly any differences between these two rosters, as both are long, veteran teams. Credit to Maryland head coach Kevin Willard, as he rallied the Terps from a 15-17 showing last year to a March Madness berth. He has two players remaining who contributed to Maryland’s 2021 tournament appearance, just like Bob Huggins has two players with prior experience in the tourney — senior forward Emmitt Mathews and point guard Joe Toussaint (via Iowa).

Huggins leans on six seniors for the crux of his rotation. Only sophomore big James Okonkwo plays meaningful minutes outside of those veterans, and he is still a reserve.

The margin of error for the Terrapins’ will be rather small on Thursday, as they have lost three of their last four, going 2-2 against the spread. In fact, remove wins against the worst team in the conference and the Terrapins are 6-5 straight up since January 25.

Meanwhile, West Virginia charged forward late this season, beginning with a February 20 blowout of Oklahoma State. That came after a three-game losing streak, but since then, the Mountaineers are 4-2 with both losses coming to defending national champion Kansas.

Going 5-1 ATS in that stretch may scream a small sample size, but the most-recent six-game stretch in the best conference in the country should hold plenty of weight.

Huggins has his veterans hot at the right moment, and that should be enough in this close game.

My best bet: West Virginia moneyline (-130 at FanDuel)

West Virginia vs Maryland spread analysis

West Virginia was 0-2 ATS as a one-bucket favorite in Big 12 play, losing by eight to Texas as a one-point favorite and by five to Baylor as one-point chalk.

Of course, both of those losses came in January. Maryland has fared just as badly as a short underdog, going 0-4 ATS in Big Ten play, which includes two of its last four games.

A spread this close in a game this stressful can oftentimes come down to late free-throw shooting and the ability to handle a hectic finish. West Virginia should be more comfortable in late-game chaos, considering the Mountaineers already prefer a faster pace.

West Virginia vs Maryland Over/Under analysis

A total of 137.5 or 138 as of Tuesday afternoon is lower than Pomeroy’s projected 143. Given the strong free-throw shooting from both teams, the five-point difference seems to skew in the wrong direction.

West Virginia certainly should not struggle to score, given its offensive efficiency the last three weeks compared to Maryland’s increasingly woeful defense. If the Mountaineers are thus dictating things, this game should speed up.

Huggins operates with the 104th-fastest pace in the country, perhaps not lightning quick but comparatively so when looking at the Terrapins’ plodding ranking in the country of 312th. Nerves might create an Under opportunity, but with such veteran-laden lineups, even that should be unexpected.

West Virginia vs Maryland betting trend to know

West Virginia went 7-4 ATS on four-plus days rest in conference play, but that includes going 7-1 in the last eight such moments, a stretch dating back to January 18. Find more college basketball betting trends for Charleston vs. San Diego State.

West Virginia vs Maryland game info

West Virginia vs Maryland key injuries

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