The No. 10-seed Vanderbilt Commodores take on the No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday afternoon.
The Gaels have a suffocating defense but my Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's predictions are betting on a Dores player who should find success from deep.
Here are my best free March Madness picks for this East Region showdown on Friday, March 21, with tipoff at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Who will win Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's?
This will be a clash between an uptempo Vanderbilt attack that ranks 30th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and an extremely slow-paced Saint Mary's squad that's seventh in adjusted defense.
The Gaels haven't faced as many high-caliber opponents as the Dores but they proved they can limit a highly-efficient offense in their clashes with Gonzaga. They played three games against the Zags and held them to 61.0 points per game on 44% shooting. They'll lean on that elite defense and their size advantage to get a hard-fought win here.
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's prediction
My best bet: Tyler Nickel Over 1.5 threes (+110 at bet365)
With center Mitchell Saxon and forward Paulius Murauskas, the Saint Mary's Gaels are extremely tough to score against on the interior, ranking 12th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage (45.8%)
If the Vanderbilt Commodores want to solve this elite Saint Mary's defense, they'll need to shoot well from the perimeter. Whether or not they can do that, will come down to leading scorer Jason Edwards (17.0 PPG, 36 3PT%) and second-leading scorer Tyler Nickel (10.5 PPG, 40.6 3PT%).
Nickel lives behind the arc with a whopping 76% of his shots coming from long range. Not only has Nickel hit more than 1.5 threes in 15 of his last 24 games, but he's eclipsed 2.5 threes in 13 of those contests. The 6-foot-7 sharpshooter is knocking down 2.7 threes per game at a sizzling 45% clip over that span.
With the Dores unable to get open looks in the paint and at the rim, look for them to lean on their outside shooting with Nickel.
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Nickel Over 1.5 threes
Vanderbilt +4.5
Mitchell Saxen Over 7.5 rebounds
The Gaels should get the win but it won't be easy. They play at one of the slowest tempos in the country and that combined with their defensive-oriented style makes it tough to win with margin. They are 11-17 against the spread as a favorite this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six.
Vanderbilt ran the gauntlet in the grueling SEC while the Gaels played in the weaker West Coast Conference. The Commodores went 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS in the non-conference part of their schedule. Meanwhile, the Gaels went just 3-10 ATS in 13 lined games against non-conference foes.
In addition, the Gaels are 272nd in the country in free-throw percentage (69.5%). They might have a tough time icing the game with free throws if Vandy resorts to fouling near the end.
St. Mary's leads the country in rebounding rate thanks in large part to the 6-foot-10, 250-pound Saxen. The senior center has pulled down 8+ boards in 13 of his last 20 games and should control the paint against an undersized Vanderbilt frontcourt.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your March Madness ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 15+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's odds
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's live odds
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's opening odds
- Spread: Vanderbilt +4.5 (-110) | Saint Mary's -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +160 | Saint Mary's -190
- Over/Under: Over 135.5 (-110) | Under 135.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's betting trend to know
Vanderbilt has covered the first-half spread in 17 of its last 24 games (+8.75 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary's.
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's
| Region | East |
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Vanderbilt vs Saint Mary's key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
