Two schools with a recent history of facing off in March will meet again as the Xavier Musketeers play the Texas Longhorns in a First Four matchup on Wednesday night.
With these teams looking to be evenly matched heading into the game, I’m taking the Longhorns and the points in my Xavier vs. Texas predictions below.
Read on for a full betting analysis of this matchup in my free March Madness picks for Wednesday, March 19.
Who will win Xavier vs Texas?
Like many of the First Four games, this is an outstanding matchup between two evenly matched teams. In fact, with little to separate these squads, I’m tempted to call this game almost a pure tossup.
However, I’ll take the team with the best player on the court, which I believe is Texas freshman Tre Johnson, who has the opportunity to be the difference in this matchup. I’m taking the Longhorns in a game that might come down to the final possession.
Xavier vs Texas prediction
My best bet: Texas +3 (-110 at bet365)
A quick glance at the records of these two teams might make you think the Xavier Musketeers are the stronger squad, but we have to take a moment to acknowledge the schedule the Texas Longhorns played this season. While the Big East had plenty of strong competition, there was no conference like the SEC this season, which sent 14 teams to March Madness.
With that in mind, this Longhorns resume starts to look a lot stronger. A win over Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament was a huge boost for the Longhorns — it’s probably the reason they’re in this field at all — and they have victories over four other Top-25 teams this season.
While Texas has been inconsistent this season (to say the least), it certainly has the talent to beat anyone on any given night. Tre Johnson (19.8 ppg) has been not only one of the best freshmen in the country but earned an honorable mention for the All-American teams.
He’s going to be a difficult matchup for a Xavier defense that allows opponents to shoot 44.3% from the floor and 33.9% from 3-point range, and which has allowed more than 70 points per game on the year — a number Texas has surpassed in each of its last five games.
Xavier ended the year hot, winning seven straight games before falling to Marquette in the Big East Tournament. The Musketeers have every opportunity to win this game, as this promises to be an extremely tight matchup. Still, I give the slight edge to Texas, and I suspect Xavier is only favored because it's playing close to home — which is not the same as having home-court advantage.
I’m taking the Longhorns and the points, which I think will be highly valuable in a game that could easily come down to a single possession.
Xavier vs Texas same-game parlay (SGP)
Texas +3.5
Over 151.5
Tre Johnson Over 19.5 points
Along with taking Texas with the points, I'll back the Over in my SGP. The Longhorns have been an Over machine late this year, going above the number in 12 of their last 13 games. The oddsmakers have been better at setting reasonable totals for the Musketeers, but Xavier also likes playing high-scoring games and went Over tonight’s total in two of its last three contests.
Combining those two bets makes for a clear third leg of my SGP, as I’ll take Texas guard Tre Johnson to hit the Over on his scoring prop of 19.5 points. He's scoring 19.8 ppg, and the freshman has scored 20+ points in six of his last 10 games. Expecting a shootout tonight, this looks like a strong, correlated play to round out this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Xavier vs Texas odds
Xavier vs Texas live odds
Xavier vs Texas opening odds
- Spread: Xavier -2.5 | Texas +2.5
- Moneyline: Xavier -130 | Texas +110
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 | Under 149.5
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Xavier vs Texas betting trend to know
Texas is 3-1 ATS in its last four games away from home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Xavier vs. Texas.
How to watch Xavier vs Texas
| Region | Midwest |
| Location | UD Arena, Dayton, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Xavier vs Texas key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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