An old rivalry will be renewed when the Oklahoma State Cowboys welcome the Arkansas Razorbacks to town on Saturday afternoon.
The Razorbacks amassed a commanding 29-14 record when these programs collided throughout the 1950s, 60s and 70s, and my Arkansas vs. Oklahoma State predictions and college football picks see history repeating itself to an extent on September 7.
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State prediction
My best bet
Arkansas +7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Oklahoma State Cowboys defense was a cause for concern in Week 1. This unit allowed all kinds of explosive plays last season and was doing it again against a non-FBS opponent in South Dakota State. The Cowboys gave up the most plays of 20 yards or more, 30 yards or more, 40 yards or more, and 50 yards or more in the Big 12 last year. They found themselves on the receiving end of a 1.55 explosive rate last week — not good.
The safest assumption about this matchup is that Oklahoma State will again give up its big share of plays. The question becomes how to attack that. I've chosen to back the Arkansas Razorbacks on the spread because it's difficult to imagine Oklahoma State's defense being good enough to win by more than a touchdown in this spot.
Of particular concern for OSU is the Arkansas passing game. There were big shoes to fill after KJ Jefferson hit the portal in the offseason, and Boise State QB transfer Taylen Green looked the part, albeit against poor competition last weekend. He threw for two touchdowns in the opener and ran for another two in what was part of his 88 yards on the ground. That mobility factor is key here.
Oklahoma State had issues from time to time against mobile signal callers last season. The highlight was when Houston QB Donovan Smith ran on them for 63 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries.
It's a little something that makes the difference here. Each team has relatively equal playmakers in the pass-catching department and appear fairly evenly matched in most categories. Oklahoma State no doubt has the best player on the field in RB Ollie Gordan, but I'm not sure it's enough to get the cover. The Arkansas rushing defense looked improved in Week 1, and 7.5 points just feels a bit too steep in this spot.
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State same-game parlay (SGP)
Arkansas +7.5
Taylen Green anytime touchdown
Over 62.5
For my same-game parlay, I'm sticking with the above theme and adding Green to score.
I expect the rushing aspect of the QB game to be a key component of this tilt. Arkansas has always been a QB-rushing friendly offense, and Week 1 was no different. Last week wasn't the only time Green showed his ability to find the endzone. He rushed for nine touchdowns at Boise State last season, and in a game that figures to be tight throughout with good scoring, I'm banking on his taking advantage of an opportunity in the red zone.
I'm also adding the Over 62.5 for an excellent +450 cash out.
We’ve seen significant money towards the Over here, and it’s hard to argue otherwise. I’ve heavily documented Oklahoma State's defensive issues, but perhaps most indicative of that is what it did last week when it allowed 20 points to South Dakota State.
On the other side is Arkansas. While I’ve yet to mention its defense much, there’s a reason why seven of its last 10 games have gone Over. The run defense may have improved some for the Hogs during the offseason, but this team still allowed the third-most rushing plays of 20 yards or more in the SEC last season.
I see a shootout with both teams having clear paths to score regularly.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Arkansas vs Oklahoma State odds
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State live odds
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +8.5 (-110) | Oklahoma State -8.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas +235 | Oklahoma State -295
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 | Under 56.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State spread and Over/Under analysis
- We've seen the Over get crushed since its opening number. The total has moved up over a touchdown from its opening line.
- Oklahoma State has been a great Over team in that stretch, with seven of their last 10 games going that direction.
- Arkansas holds an identical record in the same sample.
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State betting trend to know
Arkansas has covered the spread in four straight away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Arkansas vs Oklahoma State.
Arkansas vs Oklahoma State game info
| Location: | Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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