It was another losing week for my best college football picks column, but thanks to that midseason hot streak, we're still in the black and looking to stay that way as teams fight for bowl eligibility.
This week, I attempt to sort through some of the chaos that is the Big 12, and the longer I talk about it, the more I think Tennessee is a live dog in their matchup against Georgia.
Here are my Triple Option college football picks for Week 12.
College football best bets Week 12
Picks made on 11-15. Click each pick to read full analysis.
College football Week 12 best bets
Best bet #1: Sawyer Robertson Over 233.5 passing yards
Best odds: -115 at bet365
The Baylor Bears became my mortal enemy when they threw poor old Cam Rising into a Gatorade table back in September, effectively ending his season and my hopes of a deep Utah playoff run. However, sometimes we must forgive and forget, particularly when we can win money.
The Bears lost that Utah game 23-12, and their offense looked like a mess. Transfer quarterback DeQuann Finn was hurt and didn’t look like the proper fit for Baylor’s system. So, the Bears moved to Sawyer Robertson and haven't looked back.
Since taking over the starting QB job, Robertson has thrown for 1,716 yards with 16 touchdowns compared to four interceptions over seven games. Baylor has won four of those games, including the last three, and is one win away from becoming bowl-eligible heading into this weekend’s matchup with the West Virginia Mountaineers.
West Virginia is also 5-4 and has managed back-to-back wins with its backup quarterback, but slowing down Robertson should be the bigger concern.
The Mountaineers have one of the worst pass defenses in the Power Four. West Virginia enters this Big 12 matchup ranked 119th in success rate on dropbacks and 106th in EPA per dropbacks. Basically, teams can dink and dunk them and beat the Mountaineers with explosive plays.
West Virginia has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for a minimum of 265 yards in each of the last four weeks. Yes, Robertson’s passing yard prop is sitting on the board at 233.5. A number which he's eclipsed in five of his seven starts.
With a spread of just 1.5, this game is expected to be close, and passing will be a big part of the game plan for Baylor, as Robertson has averaged 35.4 pass attempts over his last five games. And if the Bears happen to fall behind, it’ll mean even more yardage for us.
Best bet #2: Arizona State +9
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
The Big 12 is chaos, and it could get even crazier after this weekend. One of the most pivotal conference matchups takes place in Manhattan, where the 7-2 Kansas State Wildcats play host to the 7-2 Arizona State Sun Devils in what boils down to a conference title eliminator game.
Both the Wildcats and the Sun Devils enter this matchup with two conference losses. A third would be the final nail in the coffin of any Big 12 title hopes.
Kansas State was supposed to be here, entering the season as one of the favorites to win the Big 12. It was always going to have a good defense, and it does, ranking fourth in defensive success rate.
The success of this Wildcats season was always going to come down to the development of quarterback Avery Johnson. While Johnson is a dynamic playmaker, it's mostly with his legs, and his inconsistency as a passer has hurt K-State at times.
Meanwhile, Arizona State is the team that isn’t supposed to be here. The Sun Devils had a regular season win total of 4.5 and hit the Over more than a month ago.
Running back Cam Skattebo is the heart of this team and the engine of the offense, with 1,001 yards rushing at 5.6 yards per carry and 11 touchdowns despite missing last week’s game against UCF.
Arizona State was able to survive because it's gotten solid quarterback play from Sam Leavitt, who's thrown for 1,631 yards with 14 touchdowns and four picks. Overall, the Sun Devils rank 16th in offensive success rate.
Skattebo is expected back for this pivotal matchup, and the Sun Devils' weakness is their pass defense. I’m not sure Johnson and the Wildcats are equipped to take advantage of that. Manhattan is always a tough place to play, but giving Arizona State nine points isn’t showing enough respect for what the Sun Devils have done thus far.
Best bet #3: Tennessee +10
Best odds: -110 at bet365
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On this week’s episode (please go listen/like/subscribe), we obviously talked about the biggest game of the week, which takes place in Athens, where the Georgia Bulldogs will host the Tennessee Volunteers in a game with huge SEC title game and College Football Playoff implications.
In the episode, I came locked and loaded with my SEC first-half Under of the week. Still, the longer I talked about it, the more I couldn’t get past the idea that Tennessee is capable of doing exactly what Mississippi did to Georgia last weekend. Either way, 10 points is too many to be giving the Vols.
The Rebels handed the Bulldogs their second loss of the season, a 28-10 beatdown in a game that felt even wider than the final score suggests.
Simply put, the Dawgs offense looks broken, and it starts with Carson Beck. The Georgia quarterback hasn’t looked comfortable since the start of SEC play, averaging a mediocre 7.4 yards per attempt and throwing more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (10) over seven SEC contests.
On top of that, the Dawgs haven’t gotten enough out of a run game that ranks 43rd in success rate, and now starting running back Trevor Etienne is out with an injury.
Mississippi really did a number on Georgia last week, limiting the Bulldogs to 59 rushing yards on 33 carries and 186 passing yards. As I said, Tennessee can do all that, too.
Led by arguably the best defensive end in the country, James Pearce Jr., the Vols have the top-ranked defense in the country in terms of success rate, are third in opponent yards per play, and fifth in scoring defense at just 12.6 points per game.
Tennessee also has a more balanced offense. The Vols will lean heavily on running back Dylan Sampson and trust in Nico to not make any mistakes. He proved up to the task against Alabama and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another strong performance from him this weekend.
Not only do I think Tennessee is getting too many points but I think the Vols are a live dog and could leave Athens with a win.
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College football odds for Week 12
Here are the full college football odds for this week.
