With only two weeks left in the regular season, time is running short to bet on college football player props.
Let’s take a closer look at Week 13’s selections, which include Arizona State running back Cameron Skattebo, Florida receiver Elijhah Badger, and UCF wideout Jacoby Jones.
See which props I’m taking with my college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Best college football player for Week 13
Skattebo 88+ rush yds (-110 at DraftKings)
Badger Over 55.5 rec yds (-114 at FanDuel)
Jones 60+ rec yards (+100 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 11-22 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
College football player props for Week 13
Prop bet #1: Cameron Skattebo 88+ rushing yards
One of the marquee matchups this weekend is in the Big 12 where two teams still in the conference championship race collide in Tempe as the No. 14 BYU Cougars face the No. 21 Arizona State Sun Devils.
Big players need to step up in big moments, and there’s no one bigger and better in this game than Arizona State running back Cameron Skattebo. After an impressive year in the Pac-12, the Sacramento State transfer has taken his game to a whole other level this season, averaging 169.1 scrimmage yards per game while finding the end zone 13 times.
The Sun Devils have had great success on the ground, ranking 25th in EPA per rush and 11th in rushing success rate behind an offensive line that has performed well (18th in line yards). Quarterback Sam Leavitt has contributed 348 rushing yards and four scores, and his ability to keep defenses honest makes this attack multidimensional.
BYU’s raw defensive stats aren’t bad, but the advanced metrics are far less forgiving. The Cougars rank 99th in EPA per rush, 89th in rushing success rate, and 85th in rushing explosiveness.
The defensive line figures to be at a disadvantage as they rank 72nd in line yards (ASU 18th), 77th in stuff rate (ASU 34th), and 90th in front-seven havoc (ASU 21st).
Skattebo is averaging 119.3 rushing yards per game, so his line of 88+ rushing yards is a significant discount. He returned from a sprained shoulder a week ago and handled 29 carries, there’s no concern about his workload or availability, which makes this a clear buy spot.
Prop bet #2: Elijhah Badger Over 55.5 receiving yards
The Florida Gators have been a revolving door at quarterback as three different signal-callers (DJ Lagway, Graham Mertz, Aidan Warner) have attempted at least 50 passes. Lagway, a five-star freshman phenom, is back under center after hurting his hamstring against Georgia, and that spells good news for the offense.
The precocious QB is averaging an eye-popping 11.0 yards per attempt. One of his favorite targets has been Arizona State transfer Elijhah Badger, who has racked up 279 receiving yards during his last two games with Lagway slinging the rock.
The books haven’t borne witness to the chemistry between these two players, setting Badger’s receiving yardage prop at 55.5. That’s too low, so we’re buying the Over.
Badger has been one of the most explosive receiving weapons in the country. He averaged 23.0 yards per reception and has superb underlying analytics, averaging 3.54 yards per route run (second in SEC) while earning an 83.4 receiving grade (fifth in SEC) per PFF.
The Gators face a tough Mississippi Rebels defense in Week 13, but that doesn’t scare me off this prop.
Why not? The Rebels have a game-wrecking defensive front and they simply don’t allow you to run the ball, allowing just 79.9 rushing yards per game on 2.2 yards per rush while ranking fourth in EPA per rush, third in rushing success rate, sixth in line yards, and first in front-seven havoc.
This should force Florida into the air, where the Rebels are at least slightly more vulnerable. They rank 52nd in passing explosiveness allowed, so there should be a few vulnerabilities for Lagway and Badger to exploit.
Prop bet #3: Jacoby Jones 60+ receiving yards
One defense I’ve been fading for much of the year is the West Virginia Mountaineers, specifically the secondary. WVU hasn’t been able to defend a soul, ranking 132nd in EPA per pass, 126th in passing success rate, and 131st in passing explosiveness.
The Mountaineers landed a few impact transfers in the portal last year and tried to replicate that approach in the offseason. It flatly hasn’t worked, and that’s the downside of relying on portal acquisitions to bolster a position group that hasn’t been recruited or developed well.
The UCF Knights have had a strange year while rotating quarterbacks, but the offense has been effective (22nd in success rate). They operate at a fast tempo (24th) and therefore are an appealing team to target in the player props market, as more plays equals more opportunities for statistical production.
Gus Malzahn has finally settled in on redshirt freshman Dylan Rizk as his signal caller. He’s more of a pocket passer than his predecessors, throwing for 294 yards against Arizona and 229 yards against Arizona State. Overall, he’s averaging a healthy 8.9 yards per attempt and has been a breath of fresh air for his offense.
One player who’s benefited from the increase in passing yardage has been wide receiver Jacoby Jones. The Ohio transfer has exploded for 92.3 receiving yards across his last three games, yet the books have responded by pricing him at even money to reach 60 receiving yards.
A 30+ yard differential in his average with the current quarterback vs. his yardage prop? Yeah, I’ll bite.
Jones has long been an analytics darling and he’s handled the move to the Big 12 with aplomb, ranking sixth in the conference in yards per route run (2.62) and 10th in receiving grade (80.1) per PFF. I’m a believer in his talent and the value of his prop, so sign me up for the Over.
NCAAF odds Week 13
Here are the full NCAAF odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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