The 2024 college football season kicked off last week in Ireland with a shocker as Georgia Tech upset the No. 10 Florida State Seminoles.
The Noles will try to bounce back from that loss as they host the Boston College Eagles this Monday, but my Boston College vs Florida State predictions expect FSU's problems to continue.
Here are my best free NCAAF picks for Monday, September 2.
Boston College vs Florida State predictions
Early spread lean
Boston College +15.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The lookahead line for this game had the Florida State Seminoles as 21.5-point favorites, but after they lost to the Yellow Jackets on a last-second field goal in Week 0, the spread re-opened at -17.5. Money has continued to come in on the Boston College Eagles, who are now installed as 15.5-point dogs. Even at the much shorter line, I like the visitors here.
While the Seminoles are coming off a season where they went 13-1 and won the ACC championship, they barely edged the Eagles 31-29 on the road. Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos threw for a season-high 305 yards in that contest while adding another 95 yards on the ground.
The Noles were shredded on the ground by the Yellow Jackets and their dual-threat QB Haynes King last week, surrendering 190 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry. Although Florida State has a strong pass rush, its over-aggressive style resulted in gaps that Georgia Tech runners took advantage of.
Castellanos is even better than King, and he's surrounded by a top-notch offensive line and an experienced running back in Kye Robichaux. With Bill O'Brien now coaching BC, expect the Eagles to utilize the RPO and counterplays that worked so well against FSU last week.
On the other side of the ball, FSU's offense was awful in Week 0. New pivot D.J. Uiagalelei completed 19-of-27 passes for just 193 yards, while the ground game averaged only 3.2 yards per pop. Those offensive struggles aren't surprising when you consider that the Noles lost their starting quarterback, running back, and three leading receivers from a year ago.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 50.5 (-110 at SIA)
My analysis
Uiagalelei failed to live up to expectations at Clemson before putting together a solid season at Oregon State last year. Unfortunately, he doesn't have the best weapons around him at Tallahassee, and it will take time to build chemistry. FSU's lack of explosiveness and experience at the skill positions will also hamstring this offense, especially early in the year.
While I expect the Eagles to have success running the ball, I don't see Castellanos replicating his passing numbers from a year ago. Keep in mind that he completed just 56.9% of his passes for 161.9 yards per game in his other 12 starts.
Florida State's pass defense has improved from last season, and with a terrific secondary and a pair of dynamic edge rushers, the Noles will be able to limit BC's aerial attack. That will force the Eagles to rely on their ground game, which should drain time off the clock and lead to this game going below the total.
Boston College vs Florida State live odds
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