Bowl Season continues as the California Golden Bears (6-6) and UNLV Rebels (10-3) meet at SoFi Stadium for the LA Bowl tonight.
There’s plenty of hoopla surrounding this game with Rob Gronkowski in the mix, and there are uncertainties with both teams. My Cal vs. UNLV predictions sort through the noise and find the actionable information for this mid-week bowl game, where Hajj-Malik Williams should shine.
Find out more in my college football picks for Wednesday, December 18.
California vs UNLV prediction and best bet
My best bet
Hajj-Malik Williams anytime TD (+100 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Although the UNLV Rebels lost both their head coach and offensive coordinator, this is still a proud team that is looking to make history by winning 11 games. There’s still plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, and many players are looking to audition for Dan Mullen, an inspirational hire who will take over in 2025.
The total is set at 45.5, and there may not be a ton of offense in this game as both teams will be without their offensive coordinator as well as their Week 1 quarterback.
The California Golden Bears are without stud signal-caller Fernando Mendoza, as he’s in the transfer portal. Backup Chandler Rogers was injured in the regular season finale, so the expectation is for third-stringer and former Ohio transfer C.J. Harris to get the starting nod. However, head coach Justin Wilcox hasn’t made anything official.
Wilcox stated that he doesn’t expect UNLV’s Go-Go offense to change much schematically despite Marion's absence. That jives with my read on the situation as well. Most key players are expected to give it a go, and they’re familiar with the scheme, so it’s not like they’ll totally overhaul the plan overnight under interim head coach Del Alexander.
I also don’t expect the Rebels to be left without a paddle offensively. They prefer to keep the ball on the ground, ranking ninth in rush rate while posting impressive efficiency numbers (18th in EPA per rush, seventh in rushing explosiveness). This is the program’s second bowl game in 11 years, and it should mean something to the players.
One of Cal’s best defensive players is linebacker Cade Uluave, but he missed the last three games of the year and his status is uncertain for the LA Bowl. The Bears don’t get a ton of push up front (73rd in line yards, 75th in stuff rate, 129th in power success rate), so it’d be a surprise if they shut down the Go-Go Offense’s vaunted running style.
Hajj-Malik Williams, a Campbell transfer, took over as starting quarterback after the original starter Matthew Sluka’s NIL dispute with the program went sour and he left the program after three games. Williams has arguably been an upgrade and he’s a huge part of the ground game, leading the team in attempts (151) and touchdowns (nine) while finishing a close second in rushing yardage (824).
Cal has given up 18 rushing touchdowns this season. It didn’t face an overwhelmingly tough slate of opposing offenses, but the better teams on the schedule tended to find the end zone on the ground. Miami (3), Pitt (2), Syracuse (2), and SMU (2) are some of the tougher opponents to have rushed for more than one score.
Both teams will likely keep the ball on the ground. I’ll believe that star receiver Ricky White plays when I see it, but the word has been encouraging from the team that the senior leaders are seeing this season through to the finish and are leading the charge for an inspired bowl effort in order to reach 11 wins.
Give me an inspired Hajj-Malik to find the end zone on Wednesday night.
California vs UNLV same-game parlay (SGP)
Hajj-Malik Williams anytime TD
UNLV moneyline
Under 45.5
There should be a plentitude of rushing plays called in the LA Bowl. UNLV likes to run the ball anyway and that will be the case whether or not we see Ricky White. Wilcox said that Chandler Rogers may play on Wednesday but that the third and fourth-stringers behind him have been taking the majority of reps.
This influences the game in two ways — UNLV is more well-positioned to run the ball, and it helps the total to stay Under the total.
The Rebels run for 251.2 yards per game on a healthy 5.6 yards per carry and have found the end zone 28 times on the ground. Cal, meanwhile, averages a paltry 116.5 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per tote while notching 16 rushing scores.
The Bears can’t block (120th in line yards, 107th in stuff rate, 128th in front-seven havoc), and that’ll make any sort of game plan difficult, let alone a rush-heavy one with a likely third-string quarterback. UNLV has solid numbers against the rush on defense (33rd in rushing success rate, 20th in line yards, 17th in stuff rate) and should put up a solid fight.
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California vs UNLV odds
California vs UNLV live odds
California vs UNLV opening odds
- California vs. UNLV spread: UNLV +4
- California vs. UNLV moneyline: California -191, UNLV +159
- California vs. UNLV Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
California vs UNLV spread and Over/Under analysis
- UNLV has cashed the 1Q moneyline in eight of its last 11 games. The odds for that bet currently sit at -155 at BetMGM.
- Cal has cashed the 1H Under in nine of its last 12 games. BetMGM has the 1H total set at 22.5 with -110 odds to the Under.
- Cal is 1-7 O/U in its last eight games played away from home.
California vs UNLV betting trend to know
Hajj-Malik Williams has rushed for a touchdown in seven of his last 10 games. Find more college football betting trends for California vs UNLV.
California vs UNLV game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-18-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
California vs UNLV latest injuries
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California vs UNLV weather
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