College Football Week 9 Odds: The Outcomes and Trends You Should and Shouldn't React To

Welp, Georgia’s back.

Okay, obviously the Georgia Bulldogs were never gone. In their last 55 games, they have lost outright just three times, all three against Alabama. But there had been some wonder this season.

Georgia’s loss to Alabama a few weeks ago put Kirby Smart’s team on its heels if it sought a return to the College Football Playoff. And the Bulldogs were just 1-5 against the spread this season. There were legitimate reasons Texas was a four-point favorite on Saturday night.

But Georgia’s defense showed up in Austin, showed up in a way that was rather reminiscent of those dominant 2021 and 2022 units. Forcing four Texas turnovers and keeping the potent Longhorns’ offense to just 259 total yards and 2-of-14 on third downs was all effectively saying, “Georgia’s back.”

Indeed, the Bulldogs are now atop the futures board, +350 at BetMGM with Ohio State at +450, then Oregon and Texas each at +500. 

But do not rush to bet on Georgia, not on the futures board, not in its next game. Take a moment …

College football Week 8 things you should not overreact to

Do not overreact to Georgia’s 30-15 win at Texas, even if the Bulldogs could always claim one of the most talented rosters in the country.

Entering the season, the Georgia Bulldogs had an 80% blue-chip ratio — which is 'the percentage of your roster that were formerly four- or five-star recruits' — the third-highest number in the country. Their falling title odds in the last few weeks were mostly a reflection of the narrow path into the 12-team Playoff, not of a genuinely weakened team.

For some quick pertinent context: Ohio State’s blue-chip ratio entering the season was 90%, Oregon’s 76%, and Texas’s 72%.

Now that Georgia’s path to the Playoff is again wide, its odds should not change much for at least a couple of weeks. That is not simply a knock on Mississippi (Nov. 9) and Tennessee (Nov. 16), both of whom have offenses that seem particularly ripe for the Bulldogs’ defensive front seven to harass.

It is also an acknowledgment that Georgia’s title odds are now already a portrayal of their expected path forward. The Bulldogs should face Texas A&M or Texas or LSU in the SEC championship game. As that becomes more clear, Georgia’s title odds may fluctuate slightly, but otherwise, they should remain steady well into November.

Do not rush into chasing title value with the Bulldogs. The current price should linger, and with greater postseason clarity, perhaps a more prudent approach will be viable.

Douglas' advice: When looking at championship futures, keep in mind a significant part of their calculation right now is each team’s potential path to the Playoff. Take Alabama, for example. The Tide have a roster just about as talented as anyone else’s, No. 2 in the blue-chip ratio at 88%. But logically, Alabama cannot lose again in order to make the Playoff, hence current championship odds of +2,000 at BetMGM.

Do not overreact to thinking Georgia is a sure bet in the coming weeks. In this nearly four-year stretch, the Bulldogs have rarely been a sure bet.

Georgia may be 52-3 outright in its last 55 games, but it is 28-27 against the spread. Remove the utterly special 2021 season — in which the Bulldogs really burst into this conversation, thus being undervalued to start the year, opening it 5-1 ATS before finishing it 5-4 — and that ATS record falls to 18-22. Since the start of Georgia’s title defense in 2022, it has gone just 16-20 ATS.

When the Bulldogs head to Jacksonville for the World’s Largest Cocktail Party on Nov. 2, some will argue Georgia should be backed because it is coming off an idle week. And that is a folly in the narrative.

Teams coming off idle weeks this season are just 65-68 ATS. That has long been a norm. Idle weeks help players get healthy, but they do not create the buoy of rest that lazy takes like to insist they do.

Douglas' advice: When lines open next week, trust the market to pile onto Georgia, in part thanks to this weekend’s win and in part thanks to the idle week. And then grab that inflated number in the midweek.

Remember that idle-week reality when it comes to the most important game of Week 9. No, not LSU at Texas A&M, not Missouri at Alabama, not SMU at Duke. The most important game of Week 9 comes on Friday night in Las Vegas.

The narrative will build behind Boise State when it heads to UNLV. The Broncos have the Heisman contender in running back Ashton Jeanty. They are seemingly better rested off an idle week while the Rebels played late into Saturday night, now needing to expedite their turnaround.

Let the narrative build.

The Rebels’ defense does well against explosive rushes. If someone finally slows Jeanty, we have no idea how Boise State will respond. Its passing game has been only middling thus far this season.

And the betting public backing the idle-week fallacy will probably bring us half a point in value all on its own.

Douglas' advice: Wait. Let the line move toward Boise State. Maybe hoping for UNLV +4.5 would be greedy, given home field advantage, but finding a +4 would scream spectacular value given the potency of the Rebels’ offense.

Do not overreact to Colorado’s dominant 34-7 win at Arizona.

Maybe it is just a reality of this job, but winning a bet is no longer the rush it used to be. Nowadays, that smirk comes not from winning a bet, but from being right about why a bet won.

Coming into the weekend, Colorado had given up four sacks per game, the second-worst number in the country. Every joke about Deion’s failure along the offensive line was deserved.

Against the Wildcats, the Buffaloes gave up just one sack, losing five yards. And that time allowed Shedeur Sanders to go 23-for-33 for 250 passing yards and two touchdowns. This was exactly as expected.

In reality, Colorado probably should have won by a lesser rout, something akin to 24-7. But the reason for the win would still have been correct. When the Buffaloes do not face a stout defensive front, their playmakers can make plays.

Douglas' advice: Cincinnati has a better defensive front than it gets credit for, including from yours truly. That alone may create value in the Bearcats’ moneyline this weekend. Colorado will open as a favorite. Expect cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter to be given optimistic health updates early in the week, sincere or not. If those push the Cincinnati moneyline toward +140 or the spread to +4, act on it.

College football Week 8 things you definitely should react to

Continue to scoff at anyone who suggests to you that traveling across multiple time zones is a massive competitive disadvantage.

Maybe it will be in other sports, ones with travel throughout the week, constantly for months, but football teams do not have to reset their body clocks on most road trips.

Last week’s common talking point was further invalidated this week, and Big Ten teams that travel from the Central or Eastern time zones to the Pacific Coast for conference games, or vice versa, are now 5-11 outright and 6-10 against the spread. That is hardly a wild ATS trend.

And it should yet even out further. Combine this year’s ACC moments of such travel with the last two years of Conference USA moments. Those schools have gone 8-8 ATS and 7-9 outright.

For a moment, ponder that Big Ten record again. 6-10 ATS … USC has gone 0-3 both ATS and outright on the road this season. The Big Ten trend might mostly be a realization that the Trojans are a disappointment.

Big Ten favorites have gone 11-5 outright in these moments. Three of those losses now belong to USC.

USC is 3-4.
Lincoln Riley never lost a third game in a season in his five seasons at Oklahoma.
He has now lost a fourth in each of the last two seasons at USC, this year earlier than last.
2022: Third loss in a bowl game.
2023: Fourth loss in 11th game (and then 12th)
2024: 3-4. https://t.co/cCu4LupRsy

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 19, 2024

Douglas' advice: While the Trojans might not go on any more hefty road trips, it seems increasingly clear that Lincoln Riley is going to struggle to keep this roster focused as its season falls apart. If USC is favored by double digits against Rutgers on Friday, count on Greg Schiano to shorten that game and bring the Trojans into the muck.

Continue to doubt the obvious teams.

A confession: I was too much a coward to bet Arkansas State -7 at Southern Miss, even though the Golden Eagles are residents on the requisite “quick fade” list. It’s not like the Red Wolves are particularly good.

I regret it.

The “quick fade” list does not pay out at 100%, but it does pay out. For the second straight week — and it has been around for only two weeks, needing at least a third of the season to provide these insights — the “quick fade” list profited, those nine teams going 3-5-1 ATS. Those five ATS losses came by an average of five points worse than bookmakers’ expectations.

UAB covering +13.5 at South Florida was more a fluke than an endorsement. UTEP beating Florida International should partly be pondered as weeknight variance. This column a week ago outright warned of taking any action in Tulsa at Temple. Frankly, that creates an argument the “quick fade” list went 2-5-1 ATS.

UAB blows a 19-7 lead and falls 35-25 at USF.

Trent Dilfer is now 5-14 in two seasons and 1-6 in 2024, with a lone win over Alcorn State.

Buyout Details: https://t.co/AILCXVBIVz pic.twitter.com/nCIJwxY2Pj

— Pete Nakos (@PeteNakos_) October 19, 2024

Continue to doubt these teams, and add North Carolina to that grouping. The Tar Heels were off last week. They now head to Virginia where they should be one-possession underdogs. Fade North Carolina, anyway.

Douglas' advice: Expect lines to move quickly against these 10 teams: Purdue, Troy, Temple, Kent State, Florida State, Kennesaw State, Southern Miss, UTEP, UAB and North Carolina. Bet against them just as quickly. Purdue and UAB are off this week, but keeping them on here keeps the list exhaustive. The following are only projected lines, ones that would be delightful to have in pocket by Monday’s sunrise.

Arkansas State +3 vs. Troy
East Carolina -2.5 vs. Temple
Virginia -6 vs. North Carolina
Louisiana Tech up to -9.5 vs. UTEP
Western Michigan -16.5 vs. Kent State
Liberty 1H -16.5 at Kennesaw State
Miami 1H -13.5 vs. Florida State
James Madison -28 vs. Southern Miss

Similarly, continue to overreact to the roster damage done by late-cycle coaching hires.

The damage done to those rosters has not yet been properly understood. To date, the nine programs that hired new coaches in mid-January or later are 16-35 ATS, including 2-6 this past weekend, not counting Washington’s outright and ATS win against Michigan three weeks ago, given both teams fit this description.

Those nine teams: UCLA, Michigan, Washington, Boston College, Arizona, Georgia State, Buffalo, South Alabama, and San Jose State.

Douglas' advice: An argument could be made this trend will only strengthen further into the season, that roster damage showing up in attrition and exhaustion. Eight of the nine are in action in Week 9. In this instance, simply factor this reality into your thought process during the week. Lines should not move immediately and aggressively against all eight, only as much as the market usually does. But two opportunities stand out.

Georgia State heads to Appalachian State in the first home game for the Mountaineers since Hurricane Helene wrought damage everywhere around Boone. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS against FBS teams, including 0-3 in their last three, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by more than 12 points per game. Take Appalachian State at any number up to -10.

Secondly, some might argue Indiana is in line for a letdown moment coming off a thrashing of Nebraska, especially with star quarterback Kurtis Rourke already ruled out with injury, but there is logic to the 12-team Playoff lessening that likelihood across the country. The original thought was to take the Hoosiers up to -13.5 against Washington this weekend, but now capitalize on an overreaction to Rourke's absence, and grab Indiana when this line charges toward -7.

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