The world seems to be putting a lot of faith in the Florida State Seminoles’ off week. Arguably the most disappointing team in the country this season, the Seminoles needed that week to try to reset, but was it enough?
If it wasn’t, then the Duke Blue Devils should be favored by much more than a mere field goal. So my Florida State vs. Duke predictions will take advantage of that value.
These free college football picks scoff at any expectation of the Seminoles rallying thanks to their time off, with kickoff at 7:00 ET on Friday, October 18.
Florida State vs Duke prediction and best bet
My best bet
Duke -3 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
There is no other explanation for why Duke is such a short home favorite this week. The world must believe in the restorative effects of an idle week. And that's foolish.
Idle weeks obviously bring some health benefits. Injured players simply have more time to heal between games. But beyond that, their impact is vastly overrated. Teams coming off idle weeks this season are 53-55-1 against the spread. They are no more likely to cover the spread after that time off than without it.
This has long been a misperception and one that sure looks to be involved here.
Why else would this spread be just a field goal when some power rankings would make it more than a touchdown in Duke's? That is not hyperbole. Quick math with the current SP+ ratings from ESPN.com — not the end all, be all in these conversations, but always a quality and easily understood starting point — says the Blue Devils should be favored by six points on a neutral field against Florida State.
Wallace Wade Stadium may not be the loudest home-field advantage, but it by no means has a negative impact. Then why is this spread within a field goal?
There is some expectation that Florida State used that time off to figure things out, to reset its season. But the 1-5 Seminoles — 2-4 ATS — have far more to figure out than one week will correct. Start with their offense, which ranks No. 118 in expected points added per snap this season, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. An extra week was not going to fix an approach that fails on 64.6% of snaps, No. 119 in the country.
Florida State’s offensive line is flawed, compromising both its run and pass games. Hence, the Seminoles have averaged 14.8 points. Facing a Top-20 defense (No. 15 in SP+, No. 21 in EPA), that is not about to improve.
Do not put so much faith in a week off. And take advantage of the value created by those who are.
Florida State vs Duke same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke -3.5
Florida State Team Total Under 20.5 points
Jordan Moore 50+ receiving yards
The flaw in crafting these same-game parlays is some sportsbooks often avoid any chances to fade offenses. There is not a single player on Florida State’s offense that should be trusted with a prop bet. Brock Glenn at quarterback will not solve all the issues that were present when DJ Uiagalelei was behind center. The problems go well beyond the quarterback, though. Namely, the offensive line.
And Duke’s offense has been far from consistent enough to trust much with a prop bet, as well. But the Seminoles defense gives up explosive pass plays, and Blue Devils receiver Jordan Moore can exploit that. It may take only two catches for him to clear this low milestone.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida State vs Duke odds
Florida State vs Duke live odds
Florida State vs Duke opening odds
- Florida State vs. Duke spread: Duke -3.5
- Florida State vs. Duke moneyline: Florida State +140, Duke -165
- Florida State vs. Duke Over/Under: 42.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Florida State vs Duke spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s earliest lines saw Duke as only a 1-point favorite, with sportsbooks leading the charge in putting this undue faith in Florida State.
- The line immediately jumped to -3.5, where it spent early Monday before slipping to -3 at some books on Monday afternoon.
- The total opened at 42.5 and did not move all week.
- Very simply, Duke’s defense will be the best unit on the field and should dictate the game’s terms.
Florida State vs Duke betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 3-1-1 ATS against FBS competition this season. Find more college football betting trends for Florida State vs Duke.
Florida State vs Duke game info
| Location: | Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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