Coming off one of the biggest wins in program history, some may expect the Oregon Ducks to have a letdown moment this week, especially on a short week. However, a letdown would require the Purdue Boilermakers to have some competence, and last week’s scoring bonanza at Illinois aside, the Boilermakers are rather short on competence.
My Oregon vs. Purdue predictions will largely back the Ducks, though with the spread climbing late in the week, the total may be the best way to find value in these college football picks before 8:00 p.m. ET on Friday, October 18.
Oregon vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Under 60.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This spread of -28.5 probably should not scare off support for the Oregon Ducks. The Ducks are unquestionably one of the best teams in the country, true long before the Ducks upset Ohio State last weekend.
And any thoughts of a letdown really are giving too much credit to the Purdue Boilermakers. No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. In the Boilermakers' case, that age-old truth lessens any faith in Purdue’s showing at Illinois last week.
Look closer at that game. Yes, Purdue scored 40 second-half points to force overtime. That is more a criticism of the Illini attention span than it is a credit to the Purdue's offense. Furthermore, some concern should inherently follow falling behind Illinois 24-3 at halftime in the first place.
Then why instead target this total? Because maybe Oregon shortens this game coming off an emotional and short week. A result akin to 35-7 or 42-14 would obviously cost backing the Ducks at -28.5, but the total would be safe.
For this total to be jeopardized, Purdue may need to score 20 points. Before last week’s second-half explosion, the Boilermakers were averaging 10.4 points per game, peaked by scoring 21 points against Oregon State, a defense in the bottom half of the country.
The Ducks have a Top-25 quality defense (No. 23 in SP+ ratings, No. 8 in EPA), one they can rely on to shut down Purdue regardless of how aggressive the Oregon offense is on this short week. The Ducks pester quarterbacks on more than a fifth of opposing snaps, costing opponents nearly a touchdown of expected points each week. Those numbers are rather comparable to Nebraska’s defense.
It's worth noting that the Huskers held the Boilermakers to just 10 points, seven of them coming on a garbage-time touchdown. Purdue gained all of 224 total yards. It should be no surprise that the Boilermakers are vulnerable against a potent pass rush, losing nearly six expected points per game on sacks, scrambles, and throwaways.
Purdue had exactly one half of impressive offense. Do not let it overshadow the 4.5 games of dismal results. And with the Boilermakers likely doomed to only two scores on Friday night, that would be asking too much from Oregon’s offense to crack this total on a short week.
Oregon vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 60.5
Oregon -27.5
Dillon Gabriel anytime touchdown
Combining this Under with the favorite covering a four-touchdown spread, even an alternate number just under the key number of -28, escalates this payout simply because it obviously raises the floor of the scoring output.
Adding a Dillon Gabriel anytime touchdown prop furthers that payout because, again, betting on any scoring while taking an Under is always going to seem counterintuitive to the sportsbook algorithms.
Gabriel has rushed for a touchdown in four of his last five games. Near the goal line seems to be the only spot he really does run, with three of his last 14 carries reaching the end zone.
There may be a thought to pursue once more player props are available on the market. Combine a Gabriel anytime touchdown with an Under on his rushing yards for a healthy payout that has fit with Oregon’s gameplan of late.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oregon vs Purdue odds
Oregon vs Purdue live odds
Oregon vs Purdue opening odds
- Oregon vs. Purdue spread: Purdue +28.5
- Oregon vs. Purdue moneyline: Oregon -5,000, Purdue +1,500
- Oregon vs. Purdue Over/Under: 58.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Oregon vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis
- Sunday’s first lines set Oregon as only a 25-point favorite. That quickly jumped to -27.5, where most books held until Thursday. When limits rose late in the week, the Ducks climbed across the key number of -28 to -28.5, even -29 at some books.
- In Ryan Walters’ season and a half as Purdue’s head coach, the Boilermakers have gone 5-12 against the spread against FBS competition.
- The total opened at 58.5 on Sunday and held there until Wednesday morning, when it began to tick up note by note, peaking at 61.5 before settling at 60.5 on Thursday.
Oregon vs Purdue betting trend to know
Before last week’s second-half flurry, Purdue was 0-4 ATS against FBS competition, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 27.5 points in those four games. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs. Purdue.
Oregon vs Purdue game info
| Location: | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Friday, 10-18-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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