Rivalry Week continues with a classic Sunshine State matchup when the Florida Gators travel to Tallahassee to play the Florida State Seminoles.
FSU freshman quarterback Luke Kromenhoek provided a spark last week to a lethargic Seminoles offense, and my Florida vs. Florida State predictions expect the Seminoles' good vibes on offense to continue.
Read on as I explain why my college football picks for Saturday, November 30.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET at Doak Campbell Stadium, with the game airing on ESPN2.
Florida vs Florida State prediction and best bet
Who will win?
It's hard not to like Florida tonight. They’re coming off consecutive upset victories and have a real chance to beat Florida State for the first time since 2021.
FSU has had a lousy season, but the offense showed some life last week. They might keep this game closer than the oddsmakers believe, but the offense won’t outscore the Gators.
My best bet
Pick: Florida State team total Over 14.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s been a miserable season for the Florida State Seminoles.
The Seminoles are 2-9 on the season. Oregon State transfer QB D.J. Uiagalelei underwhelmed, then was injured, and hasn’t played a snap since September 28.
Since then, Florida State has gone through several signal-callers and scored 15+ twice. Once was last week against Big South Conference member Charleston Southern, but I like their chances of notching three scores Saturday against the Florida Gators.
FSU frosh QB Luke Kromenhoek slung three TD passes in his first start last week. That was nearly as many as Uiagalelei threw across four games. The Seminoles offense responded for the first time this season, and they can score points on the Gators.
That’s because Florida allows nearly 26 points per game. They’ve surrendered more than 15 points in nine of their last 11 with the 106th-most passing yards allowed per game.
The Seminoles offense showed signs of life with Kromenhouk under center, and I believe they’ll carry that momentum over to this rivalry game. Florida struggles to stop the pass, and Kromenhouk looked confident last week.
Kromenhoek may have to fend off a stout Gators pass rush, but the frosh QB is mobile and can make plays on the run against a Florida defense that’s yielded 17 scoring strikes. The Seminoles should also have enough success rushing the football to move the chains and clear their team total.
Florida vs Florida State same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida State team total Over 14.5
Jaden Baugh anytime touchdown
Over 44.5
It will be a clear, beautiful night in Tallahassee, and I’m expecting points on the scoreboard.
Gators running back Jaden Baugh has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five games. He’s had 13+ attempts in four of his last five and is sometimes deployed in the passing game.
Baugh caught a touchdown pass last week against Mississippi, and I anticipate he will score again Saturday. This should contribute to the game going Over the total points, as neither defense has performed well. Both teams allow over 25 points per game, and neither excels in red zone defense.
The Over is 4-2-0 across their last six meetings, and I expect Saturday’s clash to end Over the total.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida vs Florida State odds
Florida vs Florida State live odds
Florida vs Florida State opening odds
- Florida vs. Florida State spread: Florida State +12.5
- Florida vs. Florida State moneyline: Florida -450, Florida State +340
- Florida vs. Florida State Over/Under: 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Florida vs Florida State spread and Over/Under analysis
- It makes sense that the spread ballooned to as much as -16.5 (-110). Florida is 7-1-0 ATS in its last eight.
- FSU is 1-3-1 ATS across their last five and 2-2-1 ATS in their last five home games.
- The total hasn’t moved much. The Gators Over/Under record is 5-5-0 across their previous 10, while FSU is 3-7-0 to the Under in their last 10.
- 54% of Covers Consensus users are backing Florida on the spread, while 66% are taking the Over.
Florida vs Florida State betting trend to know
The Seminoles have only hit the Under in one of their last four away games (-2.30 Units / -52% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Florida State.
How to watch Florida vs Florida State game info
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-30-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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