Florida vs Missouri Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Cook Uses His Legs Against the Gators Vulnerable Defense

Raise your hand if you predicted this kind of season for the Missouri Tigers! Well, I certainly didn't. Yet, halfway through the college football season, Missouri is making a statement in the college football odds. 

The Tigers own an 8-2 record (7-3 against the spread) and probably played the No. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs better than anyone else to this point. Now, Mizzou has its sights set on a New Year’s Six bowl game.

But that means taking care of business down the stretch, and that starts tonight with a matchup against a Florida Gators team and their toothless defense. Florida has surrendered a whopping 173 points over its last four games, so do the Gators have any shot at slowing down the Tigers?

I break down this matchup and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Florida vs. Missouri on November 18.

Be sure to also check out my latest Triple Option column for another bet in this SEC clash!

Florida vs Missouri best odds

Florida vs Missouri picks and predictions

Unlike Missouri, this season has been full of ups and downs for Florida. The Gators started the year 5-2 but then their schedule got tough.

Florida faced Georgia, Arkansas, and LSU in consecutive games and proceeded to lose all three thanks to a defense that looks like it’s been bogged down in a swamp. In fact, Florida has now surrendered 43.3 points per game over its last four contests.

A big reason for all those points is that the Gators are getting trampled by opposing run games. Take away the Vanderbilt game and Florida is giving up a ludicrously bad 241.4 rushing yards per game and 6.4 yards per carry over its last five contests. That ain’t good.

Obviously, opposing running backs are gashing the Gators, but mobile quarterbacks have actually been a bigger issue. Jayden Daniels of LSU humiliated Florida last week by rushing for 234 yards, and the week prior, Arkansas' KJ Jefferson charged through with a notable 92 yards on the ground.

While Mizzou QB Brady Cook isn’t a bonified dual-threat quarterback like Daniels and Jefferson, he is more athletic than he is given credit for. Cook has rushed for 198 yards over the Tigers’ last four games, successfully attaining at least 39 yards in each of those contests.

Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 on Saturday, and I like the Tigers' pivot to take advantage of this porous Florida defense and go Over this number for the fifth game in a row.

My best bet: Brady Cook Over 32.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Florida vs Missouri same-game parlay

Brady Cook Over 23.5 rushing yards

Missouri team total Over 34.5

Luther Burden III anytime touchdown

+355 at FanDuel

Cook gets a great matchup against what has been a bad Florida defense in Week 12. That doesn't just mean rushing yards for Mizzou, but also a boatload of points as well.

First and foremost, Cook has been a solid passer this season, completing 68% of his passes for 2,731 yards with 17 touchdowns compared to just five interceptions. With running back Cody Schrader also leading the way on the ground, this is an extremely balanced Mizzou offense. 

The Tigers have scored at least 34 points in six of its last seven games, (the outlier was the Georgia game, duh) and are averaging 36.5 points per game over those six. I’m betting they keep that going in this one, so add the Over 34.5 for Mizzou’s team total.

And let’s close this SGP out by adding someone who will contribute to those points with an anytime touchdown. While the Gators are getting gashed on the ground, they also rank 127th in opponent yards per pass attempt. That means I’m looking at Cooks’ favorite receiving target, which is wideout Luther Burden III.

Burden has grabbed 67 balls this season for 977 yards while finding the end zone eight times. If he does so again and our other two legs hit, we cash a +355 ticket.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida vs Missouri spread and Over/Under analysis

Missouri opened this SEC matchup as 11-point home favorites and have been bet down slightly to 10.5 as of Friday afternoon. 

While Missouri has been a great bet lately — covering seven of its last eight games — 10 points feels about right for this game. Mizzou’s defense is solid when it comes to shutting down the run, but Florida should be able to move the ball a bit with the underneath passing game. I also feel this could be a prime backdoor cover spot for the Gators, so I’m ultimately staying away from the spread.

That does lead us to the total, however. It hit the board at 59 and has since bet down a point and a half to sit at 57.5.

Obviously, I like Mizzou to do some scoring in this matchup thanks to the combination of its balanced offense and the gargantuan amount of points the Gators have allowed lately. The Tigers have played in some shootouts as well. Matchups against Kentucky, LSU, Vandy, Memphis, and Kansas State all cruised over the total, so I would lean toward the Over here.

Florida vs Missouri betting trend to know

The Over has hit in six consecutive Florida games. Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Missouri.

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