Georgia Tech hopes to add another upset to its collection when the Yellow Jackets face the Georgia Bulldogs tonight. ABC has coverage of this one from Sanford Stadium beginning at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Georgia Tech knocked Miami from the ranks of the unbeaten a few weeks ago, and derailing their rivals from a possible College Football Playoff berth would be the cherry on top of a solid season. But the Dawgs have won six straight games in this rivalry, and look to remain unbeaten at home in 2024.
See why I’m backing Carson Beck to have a big day in the Peach State in my Georgia Tech vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks for Friday, November 29.
Georgia Tech vs Georgia prediction and best bet
Who will win Georgia Tech vs Georgia?
Georgia Tech has put together a strong season, winning seven games and knocking off Miami just two weeks ago. Haynes King and Jamal Haynes have been solid on the ground, and the Yellow Jackets have an underrated passing game.
But the Georgia Tech defense is inconsistent against the run, and struggles to get stops when opponents get ahead of the chains. They also don’t generate much of a pass rush, don’t force many turnovers, and allow far too many completions.
Georgia’s defense is elite, and the only two losses the Bulldogs have suffered game against teams that could get after Carson Beck. Georgia Tech will keep it close for a half, but the Bulldogs will get the job done and win for the seventh straight meeting.
My best bet
Carson Beck Over 270.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Carson Beck was sacked a total of eight times in the Georgia Bulldogs' two defeats. Mississippi got to him five times in their win, while the Crimson Tide took him down three times — albeit he dropped back more than 50 times in that game.
The rest of Georgia’s opponents have gotten to him just seven times this season, and the Volunteers didn’t get a single sack. It’s a big reason why he threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns in a 31-17 win, and why I like him to top his passing yardage total on Friday night.
When Beck is given time to throw, he’s been terrific at finding his man downfield. He’s also cut down on the interceptions of late, with only one in his last three games. That pick came midway through the fourth against Mississippi, on a fourth-and-10 play.
PFF has the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ranked ninth-worst at generating a pass rush, a metric that has Mississippi State ranked dead last nationally. Beck faced the Bulldogs back in mid-October, and while he threw two picks in that game, he also torched them for a season-high 459 yards through the air.
Georgia Tech is ranked in the Bottom 10 in sack rate, and 115th in interception rate. The Yellow Jackets also are allowing the 87th-highest completion rate, with a PFF coverage grade that ranks them 93rd nationally.
The Yellow Jackets do find success at times stopping the run, ranking 43rd in success rate. Their defensive line ranks Top 15 in line yards allowed, an area where Georgia has underperformed this season. The injuries to the likes of Trevor Etienne haven’t helped, as the Dawgs have gained the fifth-fewest yards per carry in SEC play.
Georgia Tech has been ripped apart by teams with above-average quarterback play this season. I expect Georgia to follow suit and replicate what Syracuse (381 yards for Kyle McCord), Miami (348 yards for Cam Ward), and Louisville (269 yards for Tyler Shough) achieved earlier this season.
Beck has thrown for at least 270 yards in each of his last four home games, and I expect him to get plenty of chances to throw in what will be — barring a home game in the College Football Playoff — his final time playing between the hedges. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t hit the 300-yard mark in this one as he easily clears his total of 270.5 yards.
Georgia Tech vs Georgia same-game parlay (SGP)
Carson Beck Over 270.5 passing yards
Arian Smith 45+ receiving yards
Georgia Tech +10.5 1H
Arian Smith has been targeted 29 times by Beck in his last six games, catching 22 of those passes for 417 yards. Only Mississippi and Texas have kept him below the 50-yard mark in that span, and he’s going to be a problem for the Georgia Tech defense.
Georgia Tech has not trailed by double-digits at halftime in a single game this season. Georgia has led just two FBS teams at halftime by 10+ points this season — when they took down Texas, and the week before against lowly Mississippi State.
The Bulldogs are scoring five more points in the second half of games than they are prior to halftime, and Georgia Tech has covered the first half spread in four of its last five outings. The Yellow Jackets will keep this one close heading into the locker room.
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Georgia Tech vs Georgia odds
Georgia Tech vs Georgia live odds
Georgia Tech vs Georgia opening odds
- Georgia Tech vs. Georgia spread: Georgia -19.5
- Georgia Tech vs. Georgia moneyline: Georgia Tech +750, Georgia -1,200
- Georgia Tech vs. Georgia Over/Under: 54.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Georgia Tech vs Georgia spread and Over/Under analysis
- Georgia opened as 19.5-point favorites, and Thursday saw the Dawgs bet down to -17.5 before settling back at -18.5 in the evening. The Yellow Jackets have covered just once in their last four games, while the Bulldogs are just 3-8 ATS on the season.
- I like Georgia Tech to cover the spread. The Bulldogs have won six straight in this rivalry, but the last two years have been closer games with the Yellow Jackets covering double-digit spreads.
- After opening at 54.5, the total has dropped to 51.5 during the week. The Under is 7-4 in Georgia Tech games in 2024, while the Over is 3-1 in Georgia’s last four.
- I’m leaning Under on this one. Georgia stayed under this total in games against Clemson, Texas, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. Georgia Tech has a solid offense, but it’s hard to see the Yellow Jackets being the outlier and turning this into a shootout the way Alabama and Florida did.
- Covers Consensus says 64% of users are backing Georgia Tech ATS, while 68% are on the Over.
Georgia Tech vs Georgia betting trend to know
Georgia Tech has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+4.80 Units / 96% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Georgia Tech vs Georgia.
Georgia Tech vs Georgia game info
| Location: | Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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