Georgia Tech vs UCF Prediction: Gasparilla Bowl Odds and Picks

The ACC’s incompetence may have done the Gasparilla Bowl and the Tampa community a favor.

Rather than send Duke to Florida, as was originally announced, the ACC moved things around to pit the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets against the Central Florida Knights. In doing so, the ACC may have created the most entertaining bowl game of this month — and a spot for us to target in tonight's college football odds.

What could have been a Duke defense against UCF’s offense will instead be a showcase of two excellent offenses and two lackluster defenses. Let’s break down the best way to kick off the holiday weekend with our free college football picks and predictions for the Gasparilla Bowl featuring Georgia Tech vs. Central Florida on Friday, December 22.

Be sure to also check out all the bowl game odds for upcoming matchups here. 

Georgia Tech vs UCF best odds

Georgia Tech vs UCF picks and predictions

As hard as bowl games can be to prognosticate, let’s grant a general truth: When want-to is debatable, it’s more likely to show up on defense. Offensive highlights are still enjoyable enough on their own for 18- to 23-year-olds to chase them.

That is why so many bowl games become unexpected affairs, wild delights, chaotic comedies. Old Dominion’s defense turned off just on Monday, and that was enough for Western Kentucky to storm back from a 28-0 deficit in the Famous Toastery Bowl.

When Friday night comes, it may be unfair to say one of Georgia Tech’s or Central Florida’s defenses turns off. Neither has been on, so to speak, very often this season, the Nos. 104 and 75 defenses, respectively, in terms of adjusted expected points added per snap, per cfb-graphs.com.

More specifically, both are terrible against the rush. Pick your metric and it bodes poorly for those rush defenses. Georgia Tech gave up a successful rush on 49.8% of opponents’ attempts, No. 128 in the country, and ranked No. 113 in adjusted EPA per rushing attempt. Central Florida ranks No. 129 and No. 79 in the categories, respectively.

Thus, unsurprisingly, opponents run on the Jackets and Knights frequently. It made all the sense in the world since Georgia Tech gave up 5.41 yards per rush (No. 130), and Central Florida fared nearly as badly, with 4.84 yards per opposing rush (No. 113). Really, pick your metric and it bodes very poorly for these rush defenses.

What adds intrigue for the Gasparilla Bowl is that these offenses are as successful as these defenses are dreadful, and they prefer to run the ball. Both rush at least 4% more often than would be expected given game state (score, down, distance, field position, time, etc.). Both rank in the Top 25 in adjusted EPA per rush attempt, led by Central Florida at No. 5, and both are in the Top 30 in rushing success rate.

The Gasparilla Bowl is a matchup of two strong offenses with rushing emphases facing two defenses weak against the run even when they are mentally engaged, let alone when they may be checked out on the season. There may not be a pregame total high enough to dissuade betting the Over.

My best bet: Over 66.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Georgia Tech vs UCF same-game parlay

Over 66.5

UCF Over 4.5 touchdowns

Georgia Tech Over 3.5 touchdowns

UCF -5

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+420 at DraftKings

Yes, every moment of this is a bet on the two offenses. Well, a bet against the two defenses.

Central Florida gives up a scoring opportunity on 48.1 percent of opposing drives, while Georgia Tech gave up one on 51.8%. Both those rates rank in the Bottom 20 of the country, and they underscore how prevalent points should be Friday night.

With just a usual number of drives, both the Knights and the Yellow Jackets should have plenty of chances within the red zone. And once they’re there, good things will come. Georgia Tech ranks No. 115 in the country in opposing red-zone touchdown conversions, giving up touchdowns on 70% of chances inside the 20-yard line.

That’s the reason to jump on the Central Florida spread, too. Its offense is underappreciated, ranking No. 21 in adjusted EPA.

With a quarterback like John Rhys Plumlee, the Knights know their offense will be led by its usual leader. He has no eligibility remaining to use with a jump in the transfer portal, and his NFL prospects are not exactly glamorous. This may be Plumlee’s last chance to start a game in his entire career; he is not going to opt out of it.

As long as he lines up behind center, there should be enough faith in Central Florida to win this shootout, no disrespect to Georgia Tech starting quarterback Haynes King.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Georgia Tech vs UCF spread and Over/Under analysis

Central Florida opened as a 4-point favorite early in the month, a number that has not moved much, a rarity in bowl season. Some books opened early in the -6.5 range, but quickly corrected to -4.5.

The opt-outs in this game are few and far between. Georgia Tech will be without two defensive starters, while Central Florida will be missing two members of its secondary.

Those absences very well may have played a part in the total jumping from an open of 62.5 to its current number of 67.5 at most books.

Georgia Tech vs UCF betting trend to know

Five of Georgia Tech’s last six games went to the Over, and four of those six opponents went Over their team totals. Find more college football betting trends for Georgia Tech vs UCF.

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