Iowa vs Nebraska Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Hawkeyes Hound Huskers

The Heroes Trophy isn’t the only thing on the line on Friday when the Nebraska Cornhuskers play host to the Iowa Hawkeyes in a Big Ten matchup. The Huskers are also seeking bowl eligibility, and our college football odds show they’re favored to do so.

But to get that sixth win, they’ll need to beat an Iowa team that has won eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Nebraska won 24-17 last year to end a seven-game losing skid to the Hawkeyes, and will need to repeat that feat to reach a bowl in Matt Rhule’s first year in charge.

For Iowa, the goal is staying healthy and preparing for either Michigan or Ohio State in the conference title game next weekend. The Hawkeyes may bore people to death with their putrid offense, but their defense is one of the best in college football and will look to carry the day.

Our free college football picks for Iowa vs Nebraska in Week 13 explain why the postseason dreams for the Huskers might be dashed when the final whistle blows. 

Iowa vs Nebraska best odds

Iowa vs Nebraska picks and predictions

It’s a shame that this game won’t be played on Thanksgiving day, because it would be the perfect thing to help induce a mid-afternoon turkey nap. To call this an ugly offensive matchup would be an understatement of epic proportions. 

The Iowa offense might be the worst in school history, which is saying something considering what we’ve been subjected to over the years by Kirk Ferentz. Last season, the Hawkeyes averaged just 252 yards of offense per game, the lowest mark in school history. Well, until this season, where they’ve posted less than 246 yards per contest.

They’ve been able to rely on the run game most years, but this season the Hawkeyes rank 130th or worse in EPA per run play and success rate, and are below par in line yards per rush. They rarely get to the second level, either. As for their passing numbers, they’re about what you’d expect from past seasons.

It’s their defense that has carried them to nine wins this season, and has them in the Big Ten title game. The Hawkeyes rank first nationally in EPA per game, third in EPA per play, and Top 5 in points allowed and yards per play.

Nebraska could be confused easily for Iowa if you weren’t familiar with the uniforms. The Huskers rank 100th or worse in most major offensive categories, including 111th in passing yards per attempt and 117th in points per game. 

Where they do find success is running the ball. The Huskers average nearly 41 carries per game, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. They’ve posted a respectable EPA on run plays, and average 3.3 line yards per rush.

So why is Nebraska searching for a sixth win? Because it can’t hold onto the football. And that’s why we’re taking Iowa to not only cover the spread on Friday, but to win outright.

Nebraska leads the nation in turnovers. Its 28 fumbles this season are the most of any team in college football, two more than USC. It’s lost 13 of those, also highest in the nation. And Friday is going to be a very cold day, with temperatures not expected to reach the freezing mark and wind chills expected to top out around 20 degrees. 

If you’ve ever played tackle football, you know how much it hurts to get hit when it’s that cold. It’s even harder to hold onto the football. For a team that can’t secure the ball in regular conditions, that’s problematic.

Neither team has much margin for error on the offensive side of the ball, but only one team has issues with fumbles and only one team has pressure on them to win. With Nebraska being that team in both categories, going against an Iowa team that is bred for winning close, low-scoring affairs, I’ll put my money on the Hawkeyes every day of the week. 

Take Iowa to win outright on the money line at plus-odds, with FanDuel offering the best price at +122.

My best bet: Iowa moneyline (+122 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Iowa vs Nebraska same-game parlay

Iowa moneyline

Race to 15 points - Neither

Chubba Purdy Under 124.5 yards passing

30% boost available

+650 +845 at bet365

Along with Iowa winning outright, we’re taking a very low-scoring affair. The total for this game is 25.5 points, an abysmally-low number. But rather than take the Under, we’re going to bank on neither team reaching 15 points. Both defenses are strong, both offenses are poor, and the very cold conditions will make everyone a bit slower. 

In addition, we’re taking the Under on Chubba Purdy’s passing yards. The Nebraska quarterback will be making just his second start after throwing for 169 yards against Wisconsin last week. But Wisconsin ranks in the bottom third in passing success rate against, whereas Iowa is ninth-best in that metric. Given he may also split passing duties with Heinrich Haarburg, this is a no-brainer.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Iowa vs Nebraska spread and Over/Under analysis

Iowa is a 2.5-pt underdog, but they actually opened as a favorite on Sunday. The -1.5 line quickly moved the other way, in part due to injuries. Cooper DeJean is one of the best defensive backs in the nation and is lost for the season.

That said, Iowa has won three straight and six of its last seven, and has won eight of the last 10 in this rivalry. The one defeat in that span was a two-point loss to Minnesota. Its defense is one of the best in the nation, and it’s the team playing without any pressure. Even if Nebraska wins, I don’t like the Huskers to cover here. 

As for the total, we mentioned it was one of the lowest of the season. That’s a trend for Iowa, who had a total of just 27.5 two weeks ago against Rutgers. And the Under still hit there as Iowa won 22-0. In fact, the Under is perfect in Iowa’s last six games.

That’s probably a big reason why the total has dropped as much as four points since opening on Sunday. But it’s interesting to note the winner of this game has actually scored at least 24 points in each of the last 10 seasons, and the Over has come through in six of the last seven and eight of the last 10. 

I could see the Over hitting here as well; for example, a 14-12 final score would see it happen once again. That’s why I’ll be staying away from it and instead taking both teams to stay below 15 points, as we discussed in our same-game parlay. 

Iowa vs Nebraska betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in Iowa’s last six games. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Nebraska.

Iowa vs Nebraska game info

Iowa vs Nebraska latest injuries

Iowa vs Nebraska weather

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