LSU vs Arkansas NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Too Much Tiger Tonight

LSU's offense is firing on all cylinders... and we don't think that a banged-up Arkansas offense will be able to keep pace in this prime-time SEC matchup.

Rob Paul - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rob Paul • Betting Analyst
Oct 19, 2024 • 18:38 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Garrett Nussmeier LSU Tigers college football
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: LSU Tigers Garrett Nussmeier prepares to throw the ball in NCAAF action.

Coming off its biggest win of the season, the LSU Tigers take on an Arkansas Razorbacks squad that also managed to upset a Top-10 team the last time it was on the field. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET at Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, with the game airing on ESPN.

LSU is playing its best football of the season, and my LSU vs. Arkansas predictions expect the Tigers' offense to be the difference in tonight's SEC matchup.

Read on to see why one of the plays on your college football picks card for Saturday, October 19 should be geaux Tigers!

LSU vs Arkansas prediction and best bet

My best bet
LSU -2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

After losing their season opener to USC, the LSU Tigers faded into the background for a few weeks — but its OT upset win over Mississippi last week has the Tigers ranked No. 8 and looking like a legit College Football Playoff contender.

Brian Kelly has a rich history of losing high-profile, non-conference openers and then rallying to put together a strong season. I think that’s what’s happening with the Tigers, who have covered the spread in each of their last two games, but it’s a little surprising to see this spread shifting in the Arkansas Razorbacks direction.

LSU opened -4.5, which I would have had a tougher time feeling good about backing, but winning by three against a Razorbacks team whose starting quarterback is banged up?

Sign me up.

Arkansas QB Taylen Green exited with a knee injury during the upset over Tennessee two weeks ago, and while he did try to return, he clearly wasn’t himself. Sam Pittman hasn’t confirmed whether or not Green will play against LSU, saying his status is still to be determined. It does seem likely that he will play, but how effective will he be? The biggest plus with him is his mobility, and if he can’t be impactful in the run game, that changes a lot for LSU’s defense.

Arkansas is just 71st in EPA per dropback, with Green committing nine turnover-worthy plays this season and posting an adjusted completion rate of just 68%, per Pro Football Focus. If LSU can focus on stopping the run, the Razorbacks could have a tough time scoring — and they’ll need to score to keep up with LSU’s attack.

The Tigers’ offense is fifth in SP+ and 14th in EPA per dropback, thanks to LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, who has been one of the best passers in the country this season and is building NFL buzz with every game.

He’s not alone either; he has a deep pass-catcher group, led by Kyren Lacy and Aaron Anderson, that will challenge an Arkansas secondary ranked 45th in EPA per dropback. 

The Tigers are poised to score at least 28 points, and I’m not sure Arkansas is capable of putting up more than 24.

LSU vs Arkansas same-game parlay (SGP)

LSU -2.5

Garrett Nussmeier 275+ passing yards

Ja’Quinden Jackson anytime touchdown

Nussmeier has been on a tear, throwing for at least 285 yards in every game this season, including more than 330 in each of his last three outings. LSU’s offense is pass-heavy, and he should have no problem throwing for 275.

He’s 11th in the country in big-time throws this season (13) and isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield with a 10.2-yard average depth of target. Arkansas’ offense is the opposite, relying heavily on a run game carried by Ja’Quinden Jackson.

The Utah transfer is eighth in the country in rushing touchdowns (10) and has scored in every game this season. His 368 yards after contact and 33 forced missed tackles both rank Top 30 in the nation.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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LSU vs Arkansas odds

LSU vs Arkansas live odds

LSU vs Arkansas opening odds

  • LSU vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas +4.5
  • LSU vs. Arkansas moneyline: LSU -185, Arkansas +55
  • LSU vs. Arkansas Over/Under: 57.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

LSU vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis

  • LSU opened as a 4.5-point road favorite, with the spread steadily dropping down to just -2.5 at most books.
  • The Tigers are just 2-4 ATS this season but have covered in their last two, while Arkansas is among the best at 5-1 ATS.
  • The Over/Under opened as high as 58 but has since moved down to 56.5 at most sportsbooks.
  • LSU is 2-4 betting the Over and Arkansas is 3-3.

LSU vs Arkansas betting trend to know

Arkansas has gone Under its team total in four straight games (+4.20 Units / 81% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for LSU vs Arkansas.

LSU vs Arkansas game info

Location: Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Date: Saturday, 10-19, 2024
Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

LSU vs Arkansas latest injuries

LSU vs Arkansas weather

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Rob Paul - Contributor at Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Rob has contributed to various sports media outlets since 2018, including FanSided and Pro Football Network, but Covers is the first site he’s worked at that is dedicated solely to the sports betting industry. Before working in sports media full-time, he spent five years as a local community journalist after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history.

He’s long been involved in sports in one way or another, previously hosting a podcast focused on the NFL draft and college football. Working as a freelance podcast producer, Rob has appeared on numerous sports podcasts and college football shows. He's also been a guest on SportsTalk Mississippi, discussing the NFL draft.

One of his favorite things about the sports betting industry is the way it helps shine a light on sports that get less coverage. He’s a diehard player prop bettor who always recommends using stats and analytics to identify the best players to back before placing a bet.

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