The Mississippi Rebels are coming off an ugly loss, and while they still have decent odds to make the College Football Playoff, their margin of error just got a lot smaller.
This afternoon, the Rebels must handle business as nearly double-digit road favorites against the South Carolina Gamecocks. That means getting back to what they do best — running the football. My Mississippi vs. South Carolina predictions break down how that could mean a slow start to this game.
Check out my college football picks for this SEC showdown on Saturday, October 5.
Mississippi vs South Carolina prediction
My best bet
Under 27.5 1H (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Mississippi Rebels were flying high. They were 4-0, ranked sixth in the country, and looked unstoppable on offense. But it just goes to show that who you play matters.
The Kentucky Wildcats came to town as 15.5-point road underdogs last week. Kentucky was coming off a neat upset of Georgia two weeks prior and showed that was no fluke. The Wildcats suffocated the Rebels' offense, winning 20-17 and putting a serious dent in Mississippi’s title aspirations this season, SEC or otherwise.
One thing to note in the loss to the Wildcats was that Mississippi got away from its bread-and-butter, and that's running the football. The Rebels run the ball 53% of the time this season but only handed the ball off to running backs Henry Parrish Jr. and Matt Jones 16 times in the loss.
Yes, Jaxson Dart has generally looked really good this season, outside of SEC play, but he’s at his most dangerous when the Rebels’ run game is rolling. Lane Kiffin, who loves to script out many of his team's plays to start a game, will get back to that here.
The South Carolina Gamecocks enter this game at 3-1, including a beatdown of the same Kentucky team that handed Mississippi its first L of the season while the loss came by just three points against LSU.
Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, their biggest problem has been stopping the run, ranking 76th in defensive success rate vs. the rush, so they should expect a large dose of Rebels running here.
Meanwhile, the South Carolina offense has had its own issues, particularly in the pass game. The Gamecocks rank 80th in offensive success rate on dropbacks and are throwing for just 179.5 yards per game. On top of that, starting quarterback LaNorris Sellers is questionable to play.
Whoever is under center for the Gamecocks will be in tough against a Mississippi defense that ranks second in success rate and fourth in opponent yards per play.
Between Mississippi running the ball more and a struggling South Carolina offense, I think the first half of will be relatively low-scoring.
Mississippi vs South Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 27.5 1H
Henry Parrish Jr. 80+ rushing yards
Henry Parrish Jr. anytime TD
This harkens to my idea that Kiffin will lean on the run game early and Parrish Jr. has been the Rebels’ best back to this point.
The former Miami Hurricane has already rumbled for 489 yards at a whopping 7.0 yards per carry and has found the end zone eight times this season. He's scored at least once in four straight games. Even in the game vs. the Wildcats, put up 63 yards and averaged 4.8 yards every time he touched the rock.
South Carolina has been burned by explosive runs this season, so going against a guy like Parrish is less than ideal. Taking him to hit the 80-yard mark and extend his touchdown streak to five games looks more than reasonable in this matchup.
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Mississippi vs South Carolina odds
Mississippi vs South Carolina live odds
Mississippi vs South Carolina opening odds
- Mississippi vs. South Carolina spread: South Carolina +9
- Mississippi vs. South Carolina moneyline: Mississippi -330, South Carolina +265
- Mississippi vs. South Carolina Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Mississippi vs South Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis
- South Carolina opened this SEC matchup as 9-point home underdogs and were faded to 9.5. Money has come back on the Gamecocks since then, as they are now in the 8-8.5 range.
- While this is a matchup of SEC teams, this is the first time these programs will face off since November of 2020. South Carolina is also 2-0 ATS as an underdog this season.
- The total hit the board at 51.5 and has been bet up to 53.5 as of Thursday evening.
- At this new number, I would lean toward the full game Under as well, but I prefer the first half hear knowing Kiffin should try to establish the run before potentially opening things up in the second half.
Mississippi vs South Carolina betting trend to know
Mississippi has hit the Under in 8 of its last 12 games for +3.65 Units and a 28% ROI while South Carolina has hit the Under in 7 of its last 10 games for +3.70 Units and a 34% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs South Carolina.
Mississippi vs South Carolina game info
| Location: | Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, SC |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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