One of the marquee matchups of Week 6 goes down at Kyle Field as the No. 9 Missouri Tigers square off with the Texas A&M Aggies.
Eli Drinkwitz’s squad puts its undefeated record on the line in a challenging road environment, and the game is lined under a field goal (Texas A&M -2.5), setting the stage for a must-watch game.
See which side of the total I’m eyeing with my Missouri vs. Texas A&M predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Missouri vs Texas A&M prediction
My best bet
Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
I’m not expecting either team to light up the scoreboard when the Missouri Tigers head to Kyle Field to face the Texas A&M Aggies. Both offenses like to run the ball, both defenses have been playing well, and both teams have been slowing down the pace.
Texas A&M struggled to defend the rush to start the year, which was unexpected considering the strength of the team was supposed to be along the defensive front. The talent there has since turned into production, as the Aggies are allowing an average of 80.3 rushing yards across their last three games.
Nic Scourton, Shemar Turner, and Shemar Stewart are all impact players up front, and it’s no mystery why A&M ranks sixth in line yards and eighth in stuff rate.
This is somewhat of a strength-on-strength matchup as Mizzou has a sound offensive line (34th in line yards, 27th in stuff rate, 13th in front-seven havoc). The Tigers’ effective rushing attack (26th in rushing success rate) will be challenged, and while the OL is technically sound, it’s not full of overwhelming athletes.
On the flip side, A&M’s offense has moved the ball all right (56th in success rate) but has suffered from a lack of big plays (118th in explosiveness). The passing game has mostly struggled (103rd in passing success rate), and Missouri plays a lot of zone, which could be difficult for redshirt freshman quarterback Marcel Reed to navigate if he earns another start.
Mizzou lost a lot of production from last year’s stellar defense, but so far, the numbers haven’t suffered. The Tigers rank fifth in success rate, walling off the line of scrimmage (third in line yards, 10th in stuff rate) and covering well (12th in passing success rate).
We know that A&M wants to keep the ball on the ground (11th in rush rate), but lanes may not be so easy to come by against a Tigers defense that ranks 19th in EPA per rush and 10th in rushing success rate.
Neither team has looked to push the tempo, so there shouldn’t be an overwhelming amount of plays or possessions. Mizzou ranks 73rd in plays per minute (2.16), while A&M checks in at 85th (2.10).
Missouri vs Texas A&M same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 48.5
Nathaniel Noel Over 64.5 rushing yards
Le'Veon Moss 70+ rushing yards
Both teams establish the run offensively, setting the stage for a matchup in which the clock will be ticking, and both running backs will be relied upon for a substantial workload.
Nate Noel transferred in from Appalachian State and has assumed lead back duties in this offense. That’s generally a role that leads to a huge chunk of volume, evidenced by running back Cody Schrader’s 298 touches a year ago.
Noel is the clear lead dog in the backfield after handling 46 carries across his last two games. He’s been effective with those touches, racking up 320 yards, so there’s no reason to expect a drop-off.
Le’Veon Moss has been the offensive focal point for the Aggies and offensive coordinator Collin Klein should stick to that game plan with a young quarterback and a wide receiving room that has failed to make much of an impact.
Moss has more than double the scrimmage yards (504) of any other player on his team and is averaging a healthy 6.2 yards per touch. The offensive line in front of him has been a revelation, ranking 21st in line yards, sixth in front-seven havoc, and eighth in power success rate.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Missouri vs Texas A&M odds
Missouri vs Texas A&M live odds
Missouri vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Missouri vs. Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -2.5
- Missouri vs. Texas A&M moneyline: Missouri +2.5, Texas A&M -2.5
- Missouri vs. Texas A&M Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Missouri vs Texas A&M spread and Over/Under analysis
- Mizzou is riding an eight-game win streak, which is tied with Army for the longest in the nation and is the program’s best since 1960.
- A&M has struggled to defend its home turf, failing to cover the spread in any of its three games at Kyle Field this season.
- Both teams have trended toward the Under this year — Mizzou is 1-3 O/U, while A&M is 2-3 O/U.
Missouri vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Texas A&M is 3-6 O/U in its last nine home games. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Texas A&M.
Missouri vs Texas A&M game info
| Location: | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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