You might be wondering, “Why is Covers doing a Navy vs. Air Force predictions piece?”
Let me tell you why. The greatest trend in sports betting, that’s why! Service Academy Unders are back, baby!
Despite this trend being baked into the total and numbers going lower than ever, my college football picks are still squarely focused on the Under when the Midshipmen travel to Air Force Academy to take on the Falcons on Saturday, October 5.
Navy vs Air Force prediction
My best bet
Under 35.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
For the uninitiated, the Under is 44-9-1 in the last 54 meetings between Service Academy programs (Air Force Falcons, Army Black Knights, and Navy Midshipmen). That is an 83% cash rate, which is basically unheard of in sports betting.
But let’s begin with a quick rundown of why this trend is occurring.
All three programs run the triple option, or some form of it, which means a lot of running the football. These programs also have continuity.
Coaches generally serve long tenures, and these teams don’t use the transfer portal like others. This means the players know how to run and defend these offenses very well and the end result is a lot of four-yard runs and a clock that is constantly moving when these teams face off.
Now, you might say things like, “How can you use data from a game in 2014 to predict an outcome in 2024?” or “Oddmakers have adjusted and the value is all gone!”
These things are true in a sense and I would never recommend making a bet based solely on trend. My case for the Under is oddsmakers may not be able to adjust these totals enough.
Let’s look at the last four seasons. Prior to 2020, it was normal to see these totals in the high 40s and low 50s, and it’s only in the last four seasons when we start to see the dramatic shift in the Service Academy totals.
The average total over the last four seasons (12 games) in the Service Academy matchups has been 36.5. So, books have definitely adjusted. Despite this, the Over has hit only once in those 12 games. That was Army-Navy two seasons ago, which was a game that was tied at 10 at the end of regulation before a bunch of overtime touchdowns sent it Over.
The average combined points scored across these 12 games is 25.3 points, with the games topping 30 points just one, a 40-7 Air Force win in 2020. So, there is still a discrepancy in the totals and points scored in these matchups.
Other defenses of the Over might include, “Navy looks more explosive this season,” or “Air Force looks overmatched.” Well, even if Navy looks more explosive, they are still run the football 80% of the time.
Meanwhile, Air Force was the class of the Service Academies for a few seasons. In 2022, they put up 40-plus points in three of their four games heading into this matchup. They won 13-10 as 14-point favorites.
Even last season the Falcons were 10.5-point faves against the Midshipmen and won 17-6, and were 18.5-point chalk vs. Army and lost 23-3.
Simply put, prior season results and large spreads have not seemed to matter when it comes to Service Academies playing low-scoring games against one another.
Sure, the Overs should start hitting soon. Law of averages, etc. But jumping on the Over to be a contrarian because of a perceived edge seems more foolish than backing this trend with solid data behind it.
This matchup in particular has gone Under in three straight meetings. The total points scored have been 23, 23, and 26. I’m betting the Under 35.5 and I would still bet it at 34.5.
Navy vs Air Force same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 35.5
Air Force +9.5
Navy clearly looks like the superior team heading into this matchup. The Midshipmen are a perfect 4-0. That includes an outright win as 9-point underdogs against Memphis. They have done that behind an offense that is scoring 46 points per game and ranks fourth in the country in success rate.
Quarterback Blake Horvath has been a big reason for that. It may be a little counterintuitive, but having a great QB is essential for running the Triple Option. Can you make the right read, and quickly?
However, being a big favorite hasn’t mattered in Service Academy matchups recently.
As noted, Air Force has been the best of this group for the last few seasons and were favored by at least a touchdown in their last four Service Academy matchups. They covered the spread just once and lost outright to Army last year. In fact, the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five instances in this series when getting a touchdown or more.
Plus, the general thinking is to lean toward a double-digit dog with a total this low.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Navy vs Air Force odds
Navy vs Air Force live odds
Navy vs Air Force opening odds
- Navy vs. Air Force spread: Air Force +8
- Navy vs. Air Force moneyline: Navy -275, Air Force +350
- Navy vs. Air Force Over/Under: 36.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Navy vs Air Force spread and Over/Under analysis
- Air Force opened this matchup against Navy as 8-point home underdogs and have been bet as high as +10 depending on the book.
- It looks like Air Force, which is in a rebuilding year and sitting at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS, is on the outside looking in when it comes to the Service Academies. Navy enters this game at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. For what it's worth, Army is 4-0 SU/ATS heading into this week.
- That said, there have been double-digit underdogs in this series three times in the last two seasons, and the underdog is 2-1 ATS in those games.
- The total hit the board at 36.5 and was bet down as far as 34.5 before midweek Over money brought it back the opening number.
Navy vs Air Force betting trend to know
The Under is 44-9-1 in the last 54 meetings between Service Academy programs. Find more college football betting trends for Navy vs Air Force.
Navy vs Air Force game info
| Location: | Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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