The Ohio State Buckeyes bounced back in a big way from their devastating home loss to the Michigan Wolverines to end the regular season to take the College Football Playoff opener 42-17 over the Tennessee Volunteers. That has led to the Buckeyes being early small favorites over the Oregon Ducks on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl.
However, my Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, January 1 believe the Ducks are the 1-seed for a reason and should not be underdogs in this rematch.
Ohio State vs Oregon predictions
Early spread lean
Oregon +1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is a rematch from October 12, when the Oregon Ducks beat the Ohio State Buckeyes in a thriller at home, 32-31. That may have been one of Will Howard’s best games of the season for Ohio State with a 28/35 passing performance for 326 yards and two touchdowns and no interceptions. However, Dillon Gabriel matched him with 23/34 passing with 341 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks.
There was a lot of concern with the Buckeyes entering the playoffs after they were embarrassed by their biggest rival in the regular season opener. They only managed 10 points and 252 yards of total offense against inferior talent at home. However, they looked back to normal in the playoff game against Tennessee.
They racked up 42 points and 473 yards of total offense. They were also able to hold a Tennessee offense that ranked eighth in the country in scoring to only 17 points and 256 yards of total offense. That is a huge confidence builder before facing a Ducks offense that averages 35.9 points per game and 449.8 total yards.
However, the Ducks should not be underdogs here. The weather should be perfect since the game is being played in Pasadena. The Ducks have only been held to under 31 points twice all season and that was the season opener against Idaho, which was Gabriel’s first game with this team, and a road game at Wisconsin in November.
They still managed to win both of those games despite the offensive struggles. The Ducks have allowed more than 21 points only three times this season and they were all three against playoff teams — Boise State, Ohio State, and Penn State. Again, they managed to win all three of those contests.
The Ducks just find ways to win, whether it is low-scoring or high-scoring, no matter how good the opponent is. It is a bit disrespectful to make the undefeated number one team in the country an underdog on a neutral field and the Ducks will just use that as even more motivation and pull this one out in the historic Rose Bowl.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Both defenses are very good but can be susceptible to allowing points against great offenses. The first meeting went way over this posted total. Oregon also allowed 34 points to Boise State and 37 points to Penn State.
The Rose Bowl has also seen several high-scoring games in its history being played in such a nice environment. Seven of the past 10 Rose Bowls have gone Over this total of 52.5 points. The high level of play in this game combined with the perfect conditions should create another high-scoring affair like their previous matchup this season.
Oregon is going to get theirs on offense and put up around 30 points. There is a very good chance that the Buckeyes match that and get close to the same number. If I am making a score prediction, I say the Ducks win 34-28. That will easily hit this Over.
Ohio State vs Oregon live odds
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