In a somewhat surprising Big Ten Championship matchup, Oregon takes on Penn State at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Saturday with a College Football Playoff first-round bye on the line.
While the Nittany Lions are ranked top three, our Penn State vs. Oregon predictions expect James Franklin’s team to struggle in prime time against the best team in college football.
Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, December 7.
Penn State vs Oregon predictions
Early spread lean
Oregon -3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Most expected the Big Ten Championship to be a rematch of Oregon and Ohio State, but the Buckeyes' upset loss to Michigan put Penn State in the spotlight instead.
On paper, the Nittany Lions look like they should give the Ducks a similar challenge to the one Ohio State gave them in Eugene. However, Penn State has been one of the more inconsistent blue chip programs this year.
Not only did they lose at home to the Buckeyes, but they’re just a few weeks removed from nearly being upset by Minnesota, and they needed OT to beat a poor USC team. That’s part of the reason Penn State’s ranking in the latest AP Top 25 (No. 3) is slightly inflated vs. its SP+ ranking (No. 6).
Penn State is just 6-6 ATS this season and it failed to cover in the two games it played ranked opponents, a 20-13 loss to Ohio State and a 21-7 win against Illinois. That’s why I’m slightly surprised that this spread isn’t closer to 5.5 points.
The Ducks covered against both the Buckeyes and Fighting Illini, and have proven to be worthy of their No. 1 ranking. They sit No. 2 in SP+ and are one of just three teams to rank top eight in both offense and defense.
They’re also a more well-rounded team than Penn State, ranking top seven in both EPA per rush and EPA per dropback on offense. That’s thanks to Dillon Gabriel, Jordan James, and a receiver room full of trustworthy pass catchers.
So while the Nittany Lions have one of the best defenses in the country, Oregon has the talent to make a dent and put up enough points to cover. Especially given the mismatch on the other side of this matchup with Penn State’s shaky offensive play in big games this season.
I’m projecting Oregon to win this game 26-20 to earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 49.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game total drop down slightly before the Big Ten Championship kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.
The Nittany Lions have made it this far because of their suffocating defensive play. Not only do they have potential top-five pick Abdul Carter rushing the passer, but this defense is littered with future NFL players.
That’s a big reason why Penn State is No. 3 in SP+ on defense and allowing the sixth-fewest points per game in the country (14.0). The Nittany Lions have also been a better Under bet this season going 7-5.
And for as talented as Oregon’s offense is, expecting it to score more than 30 points against Tom Allen’s defense is a big ask. On the flip side, it’s hard to imagine the Nittany Lions being able to light up Dan Lanning’s defense.
Oregon is No. 8 in SP+ on defense and allowing the ninth-fewest points per game in college football (16.2) and the Ducks are also 7-5 betting the Under this season.
But what really hammers home the Under, is how sporadic Penn State’s offense has been at times this season. Against Ohio State, it didn’t score a touchdown — the Nittany Lions’ lone TD was a pick-six — and against Illinois, it put up its second-fewest points in a game this season (21).
Now factor in that Oregon’s defense has gotten better throughout the season - it’s allowed an average of 13 points in its last six games - and I just can’t see Penn State putting up more than 20.
For as good as Tyler Warren is at tight end, Drew Allar has struggled in Penn State’s biggest games. Against Ohio State and Illinois, he was credited with zero big-time throws and averaged just 140.5 passing yards with zero touchdowns and an interception.
Now he has to deal with a Ducks defense that’s fifth in EPA per dropback and 12th in EPA per rush. I like this Under as long as the game total is 47.5 or higher.
Penn State vs Oregon live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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