Louisville will look to rebound from a weekend loss as they welcome new ACC opponent SMU to town.
After a slow start to the year, the Mustangs have looked quite impressive, most recently by dismantling Florida State. Even in a loss, quarterback Tyler Shough flashed some brilliant play, and with a much better matchup this weekend, we're backing the fifth-year man to build upon that performance.
Read on for our Louisville vs. SMU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
SMU vs Louisville prediction
My best bet
Louisville first half moneyline + Tyler Shough Over 254.5 passing yards (165 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It may seem funny for a fifth-year player, but I'm not sure we've seen Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough's best game. Throughout the offseason, Texas Tech raved about the confidence he derived from a pro-style offense like the one Louisville coach Jeff Brom has sent up for him, and it's shown.
Through four games, Shough has posted a Top 25 QBR, an 11 touchdown to 1 interception ratio, and has already thrown for over 1,000 yards. More importantly, with the addition of WR Caullin Lacy but in the fold for Louisville, he now has a full arsenal of weapons at his disposal. His coach is expecting more of the best to come, too.
"Tyler has come in and done a great job and led this football team really well," The coach noted. "And of course we've got many tough games ahead of us; but to this point he's played very well and has been a great addition for us."
Shough has eclipsed this passing number in all three games against FBS opponents. That's part of the reason I'm happily taking this as my best bet paired with the Louisville first-half money line. But what may be more important is the matchup at hand and how it dictates Louisville's approach.
SMU was a solid play for me last week against Florida State. Mainly because the Mustangs have been an elite caliber rushing defense, ranking second overall in the country in defensive rushing EPA. This aspect would force DJ Uiagalelei to throw the ball; the theory was he would again fail to show that ability. That logic worked out as SMU won 42 to 16. The same applies here, except Louisville has a much more capable QB of exposing a secondary that ranks 70th in passing EPA nationally. I'm backing Shough to expose that just as TCU QB Josh Hoover did when he nearly threw for 400 yards against the Mustangs.
It also helps that the Mustangs should be expected to hang around in this matchup. Louisville's secondary still needs to live up to some lofty preseason expectations. On paper, the defense has been fine or even above average, especially against the rush. However, the breakdowns have allowed many explosive plays as the Cardinals rank in the bottom 40% of college football in explosiveness allowed. This is an area that SMU can exploit, allowing itself to hang around, which will inevitably force Louisville to pass more to capture a win.
As for the 1st half moneyline portion of this bet, Louisville has been dominant at home under Jeff Brohm, especially early. The Cardinals have hit the first-half money line in six straight home matchups and the 1st Quarter money line. This is enough for me to back them early. Further driving this point home is an obvious area of potential exploitation via the air, something that Brohm knows how to scheme up against better than most.
SMU vs Louisville same-game parlay (SGP)
Louisville first half moneyline
Tyler Shough Over 254.5 passing yards
Caullin Lacy anytime touchdown
We're adding one leg to our best bet for a nice parlay cash. That leg is Lacy to find the endzone.
As mentioned, he returned to fold last week for Louisville after recovering from a broken collarbone. He looked deserving of the preseason hype he received from the coaches with five catches on six targets for 71 yards, including a spectacular one-handed grab. With another week to build some chemistry in the offense, I expect him to be even more of a focal point for Louisville, making him a great value to score.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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SMU vs Louisville odds
SMU vs Louisville live odds
SMU vs Louisville opening odds
- SMU vs. Louisville spread: Louisville -7
- SMU vs. Louisville moneyline: SMU +200 | Lousiville -250
- SMU vs. Louisville Over/Under: 58.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
SMU vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis
- After a shaky start to the season, SMU has covered two straight games and won two straight, bringing them to 6-4 ATS over the last ten games.
- Louisville started the season with three straight covers and a push or ATS win last week against Notre Dame, depending on when you placed the bet.
- The Cardinals have been a good over bet. Seven of their last ten games have gone over, and three of their four games have gone over this season.
- The Mustangs' totals have been more balanced, with the total and even 5-5 to the over this season.
SMU vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last six games at home (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for SMU vs Louisville.
SMU vs Louisville game info
| Location: | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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