Tennessee Volunteers star quarterback Nico Iamaleava may get all the headlines but do not entirely overlook North Carolina State Wolfpack veteran Grayson McCall. Entering his fifth season as a full-time starter, he has accounted for 109 career touchdowns.
Tonight's Tennessee vs NC State predictions will trust McCall as much as Iamaleava, and my college football picks expect a high-scoring tilt to cap off Saturday, September 7, with kickoff set for 7:30 ET.
Tennessee vs NC State prediction
My best bet
Over 60.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
North Carolina State has long been known for its defense. Led by linebacker Payton Wilson, the Wolfpack went as the defense went. Exit Wilson, and enter Grayson McCall.
This is no longer your usual Dave Doeren-coached North Carolina State team. It returns just three defensive starters, now featuring an entirely new second level. Even last season’s strong secondary returns only senior cornerback Aydan White.
This new reality showed early against FCS-level Western Carolina last week, with the Wolfpack falling behind 14-7 at the end of the first quarter and 21-17 late in the third quarter. All due respect to the Catamounts, but they are not at the top level of FCS football. Even if one of the touchdowns came off a gifted short field, scoring two touchdowns on genuine drives and averaging 6.1 yards per play was a surprise, one indicative of North Carolina State trying to figure out its defense on the fly.
Fortunately for the Wolfpack, Grayson McCall delivered. The former Coastal Carolina quarterback threw for more than 300 yards with three touchdowns, while Duke transfer running back Jordan Waters took 20 carries for 124 yards and two touchdowns. The new backfield is a genuine one, and it sparked a 21-0 fourth quarter for the 38-21 win.
But back to North Carolina State’s defense. It did not pressure Western Carolina quarterback Cole Gonzales, it gave up more than 7.5 yards per rush, and it allowed multiple chunk gains in the air. All of those thoughts pose problems against this Josh Heupel-designed Tennessee offense.
Iamaleava shined against FCS-level Chattanooga, though that was hardly surprising. The efficiency of his work, though, bodes poorly for North Carolina State, going 22-of-28 for 314 yards and three touchdowns.
The Volunteers will spread out the Wolfpack and push downfield. An inexperienced secondary will most likely get gashed by that. At which point, it will be on McCall to keep up.
Tennessee vs NC State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 60.5
Tennessee -8.5
Nico Iamaleava 300+ passing yards
When Tennessee’s offense is humming, as it looks like it will with Iamaleava at the helm, handicapping the Volunteers becomes simple. Can the opposing secondary defend dangerous receivers downfield one-on-one? If yes, then fade Tennessee. If no, then tail the Volunteers.
For example, Tennessee’s offense was humming with Hendon Hooker at the helm in 2022 … until it met Georgia. The Bulldogs did not fear the Volunteers’ receivers at all, defending them one-on-one and sending the defensive line after Hooker, sacking him six times and holding him to 195 passing yards on 33 attempts. Naturally, Georgia won 27-13 as an 8.5-point favorite.
North Carolina State does not have the secondary to defend Tennesee downfield one-on-one. Tail the Volunteers.
And for that matter, tail Iamaleava.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs NC State odds
Tennessee vs NC State live odds
Tennessee vs NC State opening odds
- Spread: Tennessee -7 | NC State +7
- Moneyline: Tennessee -300 | NC State +250
- Over/Under: Over 59.5 | Under 59.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tennessee vs NC State spread and Over/Under analysis
- Tennesse opened as a touchdown favorite on Sunday, and at first, this line moved slowly, still sitting at -7.5 on Thursday morning. It then jumped to -9.5, some books even touching -10.
- Obviously, the difference between -9.5 and -10 is notable. Nearly three-quarters of the bets taken at BetMGM have backed Tennessee, including 80% of the money, pushing the line to -10 for part of Friday before returning to -9.5.
- The total opened at 59.5 and climbed to 61.5 by Tuesday, only to fall to 60.5 on Thursday, a bit of a disconnect from that jumping spread.
Tennessee vs NC State betting trend to know
Reaching back to the 2022 season would usually be gambling folly, but the Iamaleava offense more resembles that Hooker rendition than last year’s led by Joe Milton. In 2022, Tennessee went 10-3 against the spread, including 6-2 ATS when favored by multiple possessions. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs. NC State.
Tennessee vs NC State game info
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-7-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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