Notre Dame hopes to have at least one more home game after Saturday when the Fighting Irish plays host to the Virginia Cavaliers on Senior Day.
A win would help the Irish move one step closer to a potential host position in the College Football Playoff, and my early Virginia vs. Notre Dame predictions don't expect the home side to play with its food.
Read all about it in my college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
Virginia vs Notre Dame predictions
Early spread lean
Notre Dame -22.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Virginia kept open the possibility of reaching a bowl game with an upset win over Pitt last week, but it required a lot of big breaks going the way of the Cavs. Pitt committed numerous penalties and saw its starting quarterback get knocked out in a tight game in the third quarter.
The regressing Pitt offense provided nowhere near the test Virginia will get when it travels to Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are coming off a 52-3 thrashing of Florida State in which they ran for 252 yards and held the Seminoles to just 208 yards of total offense.
Virginia’s porous run defense is going to be in for a long day. The Irish rank 15th in EPA/rush and 32nd in early down EPA while gaining nearly six yards per rush. They’re gaining 3.4 line yards per carry and 1.3 second-level yards per run and have a minuscule stuff rate. On the other side, the Cavs have just a 12% stuff rate, allow 3.3 line yards per run, and rank 118th in EPA/rush.
Riley Leonard is more dangerous as a runner than he typically is as a passer, but he should have plenty of time to operate and scramble against a Virginia defense that doesn’t get to the quarterback very often.
And when Virginia has the ball, the Irish will be pinning their ears back. The Cavs allow sacks on nearly one of every 10 pass plays and now face a Notre Dame defense averaging almost three sacks a game on the back of a 9.52% sack rate.
Throw in the fact the Irish have the top EPA/pass defense, second-best passing play success rate, and a secondary havoc rate of 8.1%, and it’s gonna be a long day for the Cavaliers.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 50.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Florida State’s offense scored three measly points this past weekend, and the Irish still would’ve pushed the game past Saturday's total of 50.5. I expect a similar situation here, although the Cavs will help out more than the Noles did.
Notre Dame is averaging 4.9 points per opportunity while allowing just 2.4 on defense, with the Irish ranked fifth in defensive red zone scoring. Notre Dame is also converting when it reaches the RZ, ranked 26th nationally in scoring rate inside the 20. Virginia’s been poor in that area on both sides of the ball, but the Cavs have been able to hit enough big plays to avoid having to try to score from close.
Prior to their win over Pitt, the Cavaliers allowed 40+ points in consecutive games against Clemson and North Carolina, and doing so here would push this total Over. The Irish have scored 49+ points in three of their last four games, a key reason the Over is 4-1 in their last five outings.
For all its inconsistent play this season, Virginia finds ways to score. The Cavaliers failed to score at least 14 points just once, managing 13 in a loss to Maryland. They’re managing nearly 10 pass plays of 10+ yards per game in ACC play and average 10 points more per game in conference play than the Seminoles.
Notre Dame is converting on better than 40% of its third down attempts this season, it doesn’t turn the ball over, and it puts up touchdowns when it gets inside the 20.
I see the Irish putting together plenty of successful drives while scoring at least 42 points in this contest, and Virginia will hold up enough to get at least 10 on the board — even if it takes garbage time to do it.
Virginia vs Notre Dame live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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