Western Kentucky and James Madison look to end their seasons on a positive note when they meet in tonight's Boca Raton Bowl.
The Hilltoppers lost three of their last four to end the year, losing by 40 points in the Conference USA title game, and have already seen a mass exodus towards the transfer portal. James Madison lost two straight to end the season and will be down to a third-string quarterback for this contest, making George Pettaway's role for the Dukes that much more valuable.
Read more in my Western Kentucky vs. James Madison predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, December 18.
Kickoff is set for 5:30 p.m. ET from FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, with the game airing on ESPN.
Western Kentucky vs James Madison prediction and best bet
Who will win Western Kentucky vs James Madison?
This is a tricky one, given the unknown status of some of the Western Kentucky starters who have entered their names into the portal and the personnel losses of James Madison. But I give the Dukes the better chance here.
James Madison will be able to pound away with the ground game and control the tempo, and help offset the issues at quarterback and the lack of depth on defense. The Dukes also finished the season in better form, losing in double overtime against Marshall and posting 30+ points in four of their last five games.
My best bet
George Pettaway Over 65.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The James Madison Dukes will be down to their third-string quarterback for the Boca Raton Bowl. Billy Atkins threw just one pass this season, and has completed just 29 of his 59 passes in a four-year career. Not only will he be thrown into an offense he’s not led this year, but he’ll do so without his starting left tackle.
And while Alonza Barnett III threw for nearly 2,600 yards this season, he was also a big contributor with his legs. He was second on the team with 135 carries, gaining 442 yards and scoring seven touchdowns. It’s unknown how well Atkins can contribute in this area.
That’s one major reason why I expect James Madison to rely on its running backs against a Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defense that has been abysmal at stopping the ground game. And while the Dukes have two backs who split carries down the stretch, George Pettaway has been the more reliable of the two.
Wayne Knight has gained 61 or more yards in four of his last five games, but he’s also been fairly reliant on hitting the home run. While his total is lower, I like Pettaway’s odds of reaching his number more.
Pettaway has rushed for at least 80 yards in five of his last seven games, and has averaged at least seven yards a carry in three of his last five outings. He’s also gotten more carries per game than Knight, who didn’t have double-digit carries before his last three contests.
The Hilltoppers rank dead last nationally in opponent rush rate, in large part because they rank 108th with 5.1 yards allowed per carry. Western also ranks 122nd in rush success, and 112th in EPA/rush.
And while Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton allows players to participate in the bowl game even if they’ve entered the transfer portal, he may be without LB Darius Thomas, who has already committed to Louisville. Thomas is third on the team in tackles and leads all linebackers with 54, and has been on the field for 80 more snaps than any other linebacker on the team.
One other aspect of this game will be the weather. Boca Raton will see thunderstorms before and during the game, with wind gusts of over 20 mph expected prior to kickoff. Should those continue later than expected, it’ll cause some issues for the quarterbacks in this game.
Jacksonville State had two different players average over seven yards per carry in the Conference USA Championship, and Pettaway should feast on this defense. Look for him to blow past this number as the Dukes take the pressure off their quarterback.
Western Kentucky vs James Madison same-game parlay (SGP)
George Pettaway Over 65.5 rushing yards
Under 51.5
Elijah Young Over 19.5 receiving yards
Western Kentucky has numerous offensive starters who have entered the portal, and while they’re allowed to play in the bowl game, there’s no word on whether some of them will.
Caden Veltkamp has been confirmed as the starting quarterback, but he’s thrown just four touchdowns and three interceptions in his past four games. The Hilltoppers have scored just 59 points in those contests, and combined with the offensive questions for James Madison, I’m expecting we’ll see points at a premium.
With the wind conditions and the solid pass defense he’ll face, I also expect Veltkamp to rely on dump-offs more frequently. That’s an area where Elijah Young thrives, ranking third on the team in catches and yards. He will go for 20+ receiving yards for the 10th time this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Western Kentucky vs James Madison odds
Western Kentucky vs James Madison live odds
Western Kentucky vs James Madison opening odds
- Western Kentucky vs. James Madison spread: James Madison -6
- Western Kentucky vs. James Madison moneyline: Western Kentucky +224, James Madison -280
- Western Kentucky vs. James Madison Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Western Kentucky vs James Madison spread and Over/Under analysis
- James Madison opened as a 6-point favorite, and the line moved up as high as -9.5 before settling back to the current price of -7.5 on Wednesday morning.
- Western Kentucky is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games, while James Madison is only slightly better at 2-4 ATS in its last six.
- The total has come down two points from open, now sitting at 51.5 after shifting on Tuesday afternoon.
- The Dukes have seen the Over hit in just two of their last eight games.
- 63% of Covers Consensus users are backing James Madison on the spread, while 37% are taking the Under.
Western Kentucky vs James Madison betting trend to know
James Madison has hit the Under in 8 of its last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Western Kentucky vs James Madison.
Western Kentucky vs James Madison game info
| Location: | FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-18-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Western Kentucky vs James Madison latest injuries
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Western Kentucky vs James Madison weather
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