Underdogs continue to dominate the headlines in the NFL as dogs of +5.5 or more are 13-1-1 ATS and 10-5 SU (h/t Jason Logan).
This week, we've got four opportunities to back such teams, but you have to ask yourself if this is a trend you want to blindly tail this week or risk having the numbers regress to the norm.
As we enter Week 4, we are getting an idea of each team's strengths and weaknesses, so let's look to exploit those with some sharp NFL picks.
Week 4 picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cowboys vs  Giants |
(-4.5) |
 Steelers vs  Colts |
(+2) |
 Vikings vs  Packers |
(+2.5) |
 Jaguars vs  Texans |
(-7) |
 Saints vs  Falcons |
(+1.5) |
 Rams vs  Bears |
(+3) |
 Eagles vs  Buccaneers |
(+2.5) |
 Bengals vs  Panthers |
(-4.5) |
 Broncos vs  Jets |
(-7) |
 Commanders vs  Cardinals |
(-3.5) |
 Patriots vs  49ers |
(-10) |
 Browns vs  Raiders |
(-1) |
 Chiefs vs  Chargers |
(+8) |
 Bills vs  Ravens |
(+2.5) |
 Titans vs  Dolphins |
(-1) |
 Seahawks vs  Lions |
(-4) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 9-24
Week 4 ATS picks
Cowboys vs Giants
Cowboys -4.5
Panic may be starting to creep into the Dallas Cowboys world, but I think it's largely uncalled for. Sure, they were run off the field by a great Baltimore Ravens run game, but the Giants will offer up nothing similar. I'll take the team with the two best players on both sides of the ball.
Steelers vs Colts
Colts +2
The Steelers may be 3-0 — and the Colts may look like a JV team at times — but I don't want any part of Justin Fields on the road. The Colts run game will be the difference here and the Steelers will suffer their first loss of the season.
Vikings vs Packers
Vikings + 2.5
I'm starting to believe in the Vikings and you should too. Sam Darnold looks rejuvenated and the defense has given up very little by way of points and third-down conversions. Malik Willis appears set to be under center once more, and I don't believe he'll continue to produce.
Jaguars vs Texans
Texans -7
The Jaguars quit on Monday Night Football and are now playing with a rest disadvantage in their second straight road game. The Texans looked bad on Sunday vs. the Vikings, but at least they have the pieces in place to bounce back in a big way.
Saints vs Falcons
Saints +1.5
The Saints played about as poorly as they could and still nearly beat the Eagles. The Falcons gave the Chiefs their best shot and came up short. I'll take the team that's less inclined to blow a lead or shoot themselves in the foot.
Rams vs Bears
Rams +3
In Caleb Williams, I do not trust.
Eagles vs Buccaneers
Buccaneers +2.5
Off a bad loss, the Buccaneers should be ready to go for an Eagles side coming to town after turning the ball over four times last week (twice on downs). I have Baker Mayfield outplaying Jalen Hurts and ending the Eagles' mini resurgence.
Bengals vs Panthers
Bengals -4.5
What's the more likely outcome? Andy Dalton shredding his former team's defense like he did the Raiders or the Bengals defense pulling their head out of their butts and helping out Joe Burrow? I'll take the team with more offensive weapons and a legitimately good quarterback.
Broncos vs Jets
Jets -7
The Broncos did well to come away with a win vs. a depleted Bucs defense, but I don't believe they'll be as lucky against Gang Green. The Jets looked good last week vs. the Patriots and with some extra rest, and a few more days to game plan, I see them pulling away late to cover this one.
Commanders vs Cardinals
Cardinals -3.5
Despite hanging 38 on the Bengals on MNF, I'm still not sold on the Commanders being a good team. The Cardinals battled the Lions well and I believe they'll have a game plan in place to limit Washington's weapons.
Patriots vs 49ers
49ers -10
Reinforcements may be on the way for the 49ers and if that's the case, this number should balloon up to nearly two touchdowns. Lay the -10 and call it a day.
Browns vs Raiders
Browns +1
Spare yourself the pain and avoid watching this game at all costs. Gardner Minshew vs. Deshaun Watson is about as bad as it gets but the Browns defense should be the difference.
Chiefs vs Chargers
Chargers +8
The Chiefs have not looked good through three games despite the 3-0 record and now take to the road for their second straight road game (laying more than a touchdown, to boot). If anything, Jim Harbaugh is a good X's and O's coach and I expect him to have a solid game plan to limit the Chiefs offense.
Bills vs Ravens
Bills +2.5
I trust Josh Allen more than I do Lamar Jackson.
Titans vs Dolphins
Titans -1
Would you rather back Will Levis or one of Tim Boyle or Tyler Huntley? There's probably no right answers, but the Titans put a fork in the Dolphins season on MNF.
Seahawks vs Lions
Lions -4
If you like points, this is the game for you. If you like a home team getting a cover on MNF, then take the Lions and reap the rewards!
Not intended for use in MA.
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