The Week 5 NFL slate might be the hardest slate to predict this year, but I'd be lying if I said I didn't love my selections this week.
The NFL odds have only one team laying more than a touchdown, with nine games currently sitting at a field goal or less.
This is as good a week as any to move up any season-long ATS pool standings or just flat-out win the week outright. Join me as I break down my best Week 5 ATS NFL picks below.
Week 5 picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Buccaneers vs  Falcons |
(-1.5) |
 Jets vs  Vikings |
(-2.5) |
 Browns vs  Commanders |
(-3) |
 Ravens vs  Bengals |
(-2.5) |
 Bills vs  Texans |
(+1) |
 Colts vs  Jaguars |
(+3) |
 Panthers vs  Bears |
(-4) |
 Dolphins vs  Patriots |
(-1) |
 Cardinals vs  49ers |
(+7.5) |
 Raiders vs  Broncos |
(+3) |
 Packers vs  Rams |
(+3.5) |
 Giants vs  Seahawks |
(+6.5) |
 Cowboys vs  Steelers |
(+2.5) |
 Saints vs  Chiefs |
(-5) |
Lines courtesy of bet365 as of 10-1.
Week 5 ATS picks
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Falcons -1.5
There are two potential letdown spots to look at here as both teams enter off of emotional wins. I'll take the home side, as the Falcons have no travel and a healthier lineup. Mike Evans is questionable and the inability to run the football effectively has me concerned.
Jets vs. Vikings
Vikings -2.5
I'm not getting in front of this Minnesota Vikings team and neither should you. The Jets are awful and I don't think a London game will be the place they solve all their issues.
Browns vs. Commanders
Commanders -3
Similar to the above. What have the Cleveland Browns done to be just a 3-point dog? They can't move the ball or score, while the Commanders offense is playing with some swagger and looks every bit the part of a darkhorse Super Bowl contender this year.
Ravens vs. Bengals
Ravens -2.5
Division games are always tight, so getting the Ravens inside of a field goal feels like a steal. The run game has jolted to life, and the Bengals defense is 25th against the run. A lot of business decisions could be made on whether or not to tackle Derrick Henry.
Bills vs. Texans
Texans +1
I don't want to say the sky is falling in Buffalo after getting run off the field vs. the Ravens, but a second-straight road game vs. the Texans is not a good spot for the Bills to figure out their run defense. C.J. Stroud leads the Texans to a big win.
Colts vs. Jaguars
Colts +3
The year is 2024 and Joe Flacco is still winning football games. What a time to be alive. I'll take the experienced signal-caller with a great run game over a poor Trevor Lawrence and a lifeless offense.
Panthers vs. Bears
Bears -4
Unlike the Colts, the Panthers' experienced quarterback (Andy Dalton) has very little to work with by way of talent. Throw in the fact that the Bears are coming off their first win, they should have a little momentum on their side to get the cover for us.
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Patriots -1
The difference in this game is going to be the run game and defense. The Patriots are the better team in both regards and at home, they should be eager to get back in the win column.
Cardinals vs. 49ers
Cardinals +7.5
While the logical play would be to lay the points with the 49ers, I see this divisional game being a low-scoring affair with points at a premium. Getting the Cardinals with the hook at +7.5 is a play I'd make every day of the week.
Raiders vs. Broncos
Raiders +3
I truly do not believe anyone should watch a single second of this game, but I'm still taking the Raiders. Bo Nix threw for 60 yards last week. Does he break 100 this week? Maybe, but this has field goal game written all over it.
Packers vs. Rams
Rams +3.5
Jordan Love or Malik Willis, doesn't really matter. I see the Rams doing enough here to pull off the upset or keep this game within a field goal.
Giants vs. Seahawks
Giants +6
The New York Giants last played on Thursday Night Football, while the Seattle Seahawks just played on Monday. The rest disadvantage and the fact the defense was torched for 42 points have me leaning toward the Giants.
Cowboys vs. Steelers
Cowboys +2.5
I'm not the biggest believer in the Pittsburgh Steelers, and with them coming off a loss vs. the Colts, I believe the wheels are about to fall off. The Dallas Cowboys are off a win and a little momentum can go a long way for a team with some solid talent.
Saints vs. Chiefs
Chiefs -5
With or without Rashee Rice, I believe the Kansas City Chiefs are the better team and will ride their defense to a home win and cover in prime time. The Saints' offense has shown very little, mustering up just 18 points over their last two games (both losses), and with a second-straight road game, I don't see them being up to the challenge.
Not intended for use in MA.
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