Despite the 4-7 SU record, three-game losing streak, and playing on the road, the Los Angeles Chargers enter Week 13 as a 6-point favorite ahead of their date with the offense-less New England Patriots — who sound like they're using a quarterback rotation this Sunday that may or may not include Mac Jones.
The Pats have held their opponents to 10 points in back-to-back games and have still come away winless as this offense continues to be useless. With some shopping around to find the better key number, is there any reason to not fade the New England offense again this week?
I break down the NFL odds and bring you my free NFL picks for the Chargers vs. Patriots on December 3.
Chargers vs Patriots odds
Chargers vs Patriots predictions
The Los Angeles Chargers have dropped three straight games and five of their last seven but are still 6-point road faves this week in Foxborough. This number was even brought up from -4.5 while the total has fallen to as low as 39.5. The reason? The Pats’ offense is trash.
Bill Belichick has not committed to his Week 13 quarterback — much like last week when Mac Jones started and was pulled for Bailey Zappe in the second half. The dynamic duo combined to go 21-for-35 passing for a whopping 136 yards and three interceptions. They dominated time of possession in the game but still did nothing with it and continued to hit their team total Unders.
There are no confirmations about who will start Sunday, but the media part of Wednesday's practice showed Zappe and Malik Cunningham getting the reps while Jones watched.
Bailey Zappe and Malik Cunningham were the only QBs to throw passes during a drill with WRs and TEs during the media-access portion of #Patriots practice.
— Andrew Callahan (@_AndrewCallahan) November 29, 2023
Mac Jones stood behind them. pic.twitter.com/v42bev1Rvr
Over their last 10 games, the New England Patriots have scored more than 17 points just once and the defenses they’ve seen have not been special. New England has totaled just 13 points over the last two games which proceeded its bye, and those were vs. the No. 31 and No. 25 defenses per success rate.
The Chargers' defense is without Joey Bosa and is by no means elite, but it's certainly measured somewhere in the middle of the league and better than the Colts and Giants.
Mac Jones has really lost ALL confidence in himself and it’s a shame.
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) November 28, 2023
No QB would be able to succeed with the roster Bill Belichick has built around Jones and it will be no different for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye if nothing changes.
Instead of drafting Jaxon Smith-Njigba or… pic.twitter.com/tGNzrrS9NF
New England has been decent at running the ball but the QB play has just been a letdown, as well as the pass-catching talent, and play-calling in general. Jones sounds like he has lost a ton of confidence (or that his coach has zero confidence in him) and being benched four times in a season will do that to you.
Getting this team total Under on the good side of 17.5 is worth the juice here. I’d play the Under 16.5 to -110 but that difference between 16 and 17 is worth 15 points.
My best bet: Patriots team total Under 17.5 (-125 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Chargers vs Patriots same-game parlay
Patriots team total Under 17.5 points
DeVante Parker 50+ receiving yards
I'm getting a bit of a multiplier here with two opposing correlated plays that shouldn't affect each other that much with how the Pats will play inside the opposing 30.
Parker could be the No.1 receiver Sunday and will be playing his second game back from injury. Demario Douglas has 18 targets over the last two games but is out with a concussion. He is very questionable meaning more reps and targets for Parker. This offense will stall in the red zone with its QB play but Parker should lead the team in most receiving stats.
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Chargers vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis
The Bolts were -4.5 on the look-ahead line and despite the loss to the Ravens last week — their third in as many games — early bettors moved this to -6 and the majority of that is based on what the Patriots have done of late which isn’t a lot.
Things in New England are bad. The defense is great but the offense can’t score more than 10 points for the life of them. The Pats are the only team in football this year to hold a team to 10 points and not get a win — they’ve done in back-to-back weeks vs. bad defenses. They've also scored more than 17 points just once in its last 10 games and could be the lowest-scoring team in the league with another dud this Sunday.
If Jones isn't the projected starter, this spread could move even more in LA's favor but -7 seems like a stretch even if it is a Zappe/Cunningham combo.
It’s wild to think the Chargers have moved this line to -6 while the total has moved from 42.5 to 39.5. There was a little resistance at 39.5, but with possible 11-mph winds and a 30% chance of rain, the weather could keep this a sub-40 total.
This is a New England defense that knows it can’t allow points with how the offense has been scoring and even more of late. The Chargers have not been a great offense and the injuries to its pass catchers are not helping them.
Quentin Johnson exited the last game and did not return, Mike Williams is out, and so is Josh Palmer. This is the No. 26 offense in success rate since Week 8.
It’s going to take a brave bettor to hit the Chargers at -6 this week but I have zero confidence in the Pats, hence the team total Under bet. I want nothing to do with that QB play and it sounds like Belichick doesn’t either. Over bettors might be just as brave as Charger backers.
Chargers vs Patriots betting trend to know
The New England Patriots have only hit the first half moneyline in three of their last 20 games (-12.20 Units / -54% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Patriots.
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Chargers vs Patriots game info
| Location: | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 3, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Patriots +4.5, 42.5 O/U |
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